In order to calculate when and how quickly burnup happens, one needs to understand the process of burnup first.
When an object from space enters an atmosphere, this happens at orbital speeds, which at the rest-frame of the atmosphere corresponds to very high mach-numbers. For the space-shuttle this was around 30 and is more or less the lowest attainable mach number coming from low earth orbit (LEO).
If one takes a look at the Mach numbers that meteoroids achieve (as you correctly stated, that depends on the latitude, and day/night) i.e. the published numbers from the Swedish fireball network the Mach numbers can reach and surpass ~100.
I'm mentioning the Mach number, because the shock heating that results from the supersonic atmospheric entry is a strong function of it. As soon as it gets hot inside of the shock, where the meteoroid is sitting (several thousand K) the rock is evaporating into the atmosphere. That's a process that is well understood, and the main uncertainties are the Mach numbers.
Break-up can occur during atmospheric entry, as the turbulent fluctuations around the shock are very strong and can cause the meteoroid material to rupture. This is strongly depending on what the meteoroid is made of (think how an icy meteoroid will rupture much more easily than one made of pure iron) and is thus intrinsically unknown.
After breakup the surface area of the fragments is much higher than before, which causes evaporation to go much quicker, and the same process as above starts over again, until the meteoroid evaporates completely or crashes into the Earth.
Thus, we cannot reliably predict of a meteoroid will burn up or not.
However guesstimates are possible based on the size of the object.