Under climate change scenarios, it is quite certain that high latitude regions will experience more warming than at low latitudes. For example, in winter the reduced area of sea ice and snow cover should have the amplifying effect for temperature rising over polar region. Thus the meridional temperature gradient would also be reduced, so as the baroclinicity. Baroclinicity is important in theories concerning synoptic weather forecast in mid-latitudes.

Is there an estimate, and if yes how much climate change will reduce synoptic weather predictability? How will predictability be affected in springtime for mid-latitudes?


1 Answer 1


Are you referring to mid-latitude cyclones, or a different synoptic weather event?

Baroclinicity is one factor of synoptic climatology in the mid-latitudes, but it's hardly the only one. Since meteorologists are moving away from traditional forecasting parameters and heading toward a more radar-focused and statistical inference model, it won't have an impact on the "predictability" of synoptic weather. Remember, our advances in science may be the only thing outpacing climate change, and that's a damn good thing.

One more thing: Psychics predict, scientists project.

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    $\begingroup$ Nope, we do predict. You forget that science is a construct built on logic, which uses testable predictions to falsify or non-falsify models. $\endgroup$ Commented Sep 13, 2016 at 11:26
  • $\begingroup$ Actually, Ardie J is correct. That is, "psychics predict, scientists project". I have spent much of the last decade making climate change projections. I have never predicted anything. $\endgroup$ Commented Nov 12, 2016 at 9:23
  • $\begingroup$ Engineers can only predict with absolute certainty based on the laws of Physics. Otherwise if there are tolerances involved and IF you know all the variables, one can predict a 6 sigma variation or a 2 sigma result or just a POP. Projections are for small population samples like maps of weather based on sample sensors of complex models with estimates. Election polllng is a projection because the assumptions may be wrong or change at the last minute. Of course error rate and Shanon's law are relevant in both terms which are often used as synonyms. $\endgroup$ Commented Nov 28, 2016 at 22:03

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