What I want to know is more specific than the title: If a city sits on major fault lines (let's say Tehran), and has a history of severe earthquakes (greater than 7 magnitude) once every 150 years in average, does the probability of "a severe earthquake within the next year" increase as more and more time is passed since the last severe earthquake?

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    $\begingroup$ I'll let the seismologists come along with a full answer, but in short : no to the title, yes to the question in the text (you might want to reword the title so that one can give the same answer to both!). Earthquakes typically relieve stress in a fault, and hence are not independent events. $\endgroup$ – Semidiurnal Simon May 13 '18 at 12:34

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