6
$\begingroup$

I'm working on a small project and am trying to find a way to get the very extended hour-by-hour forecast for a location. Most services (Darksky, etc.) seem to offer 7-day extended hourly forecasts, but I'm not able to find anything beyond that.

Does anyone have suggestions?

$\endgroup$
7
$\begingroup$

The trouble is, any skill above climatology beyond about 5-7 days is very very low.

So sites could offer such forecasts, but they wouldn't be worth much of anything.

The main thing they could offer that has any use that is an indication of what typically happened in previous years (i.e. climatology)... but unfortunately I don't know any site that offers such on an hourly basis. We could use more of that! Still, if you're familiar with the area you're looking up for, you're probably fairly used to the typical weather for a given time of year.

There has been some small skill at making blurrier longer range forecasts... basically estimating either within a large range (such as hurricane forecasts) or (more often) giving probabilities of whether the weather will be above or below that climatological expectations.
(Basic summary for those wondering about how successful some such probabilities are: on these graphs, 0 is no skill, 100 is perfect skill... so 8-14 days temperature and precip have a bit of skill, but lower for temperature and almost no skill for precipitation for a monthly forecast given 2 weeks ahead of time)

But such long-range forecasts don't have nearly the precision to offer hourly forecasts to be of any legitimate use.

So basically if you're eagerly planning for a trip in 10 days or a wedding in a month or two, you're much better off staying far away from such novelty longrange forecasts until the event gets much closer. Until then, all you can really figure on is what's typical for the given time of year.

$\endgroup$
6
$\begingroup$

Weather Underground and Intellicast provide ten day forecasts in a beautiful (to a nerdy engineer) graphical format, in hourly increments. The skill in the last two to five days of those extended forecasts is suspect.

$\endgroup$
3
$\begingroup$

ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) provides global forecast to member organizations and probably there is a way to obtain their hourly forecast up to 15 days. They provide average fields to the public, but the hourly data is not available that way. You can contact them directly and ask them about availability.

$\endgroup$
  • $\begingroup$ ECMWF provide those data to member organisations, being national meteorological agencies. They are not responsible for providing such data to members of the public and probably won't. $\endgroup$ – gerrit Jul 12 '18 at 20:29
  • $\begingroup$ As a researcher, I have contacted them directly in the past for specific datasets. As I don't know if the question was posted for that purpose, that is what my answer was trying to address. $\endgroup$ – arkaia Jul 12 '18 at 20:36
  • $\begingroup$ @gerrit Incorrect. weather.us does offer free ECMWF forecasts. $\endgroup$ – gansub Feb 5 at 10:22
3
$\begingroup$

Accuweather Premium claims 15 days of hourly forecasts.

This may be just as good though.

$\endgroup$
2
$\begingroup$

No.

The atmosphere is too chaotic for hourly forecasts at time scales beyond several days to be useful.

$\endgroup$
0
$\begingroup$

The best solution I've found so far is to use [Dark Sky's Time Machine](https://darksky.net/dev/docs#time-machine-request API). You can request the forecast for any number of days in the future, and beyond 10 days, the API simply returns historical data.

$\endgroup$
  • 1
    $\begingroup$ It's worth echoing here that the reliability of these forecasts is likely quite low, considering the chaotic nature of land-atmosphere-ocean interactions and our difficulty in forecasting/modelling them beyond 5-7 days. $\endgroup$ – Trevor J. Smith Aug 16 '18 at 15:47

Your Answer

By clicking “Post Your Answer”, you agree to our terms of service, privacy policy and cookie policy

Not the answer you're looking for? Browse other questions tagged or ask your own question.