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According to this article, a mini ice age could hit Earth by 2030

Mini Ice Age could hit Earth by 2030

and according to this video

NASA admits mini ice age coming faster than anticipated.

All continents are now showing signs of cooling

Mini Ice Age by 2021 not 2024, Every Continent Will be Affected

Mini ice age by 2021 not 2024

Are we going to enter a mini ice age in the next decade, and if so, when?

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  • $\begingroup$ Well, I can't go to the link because my employer has blocked it as "dubious". Not a good sign ;-) $\endgroup$
    – Semidiurnal Simon
    Aug 21, 2019 at 18:28
  • $\begingroup$ the earth is currently in an ice age right now, and will continue to be so as long as Greenland and Antarctica are covered in ice fields. $\endgroup$
    – John
    Jun 25, 2020 at 17:47

1 Answer 1

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These claims originate with a paper by a mathematician named Valentina Zharkova and others, who studied a correlation between solar magnetic fields and sunspots. Based on the last three solar cycles, her model predicted that the next several solar cycles will be less intense than typical (i.e. fewer sunspots), which implies lower radiant output.

Here is an article addressing the claims and explaining why it's not something to worry about. Some key points include:

The paper only addresses solar activity, and does not mention the impact that lower solar radiation would have on earth. Climate scientists have looked at the impact that a Maunder Minimum would have, and found that the cooling effect of reduced solar output is less than the warming effect of increased greenhouse gases, so the net effect is that the earth will continue to warm even if the predictions turn out to be correct.

The cooling associated with the Maunder Minimum was not entirely due to the lower sunspot numbers. There is evidence that massive volcanic eruptions played a significant role in the cooling.

Claims that the earth is already cooling because there may be fewer sunspots 5 or 15 years from now simply make no sense, and global temperature measurements clearly show that there is not a cooling trend.

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  • $\begingroup$ 2 questions come to me after your answer. 1 - Does NASA "evidence" it's just NASA posting something that's trendy for self publicity or something or how is it explained that NASA mentioned evidence about it . And 2 - If CO2 warms Earth then how it is possible that Volcanos emitting CO2 instead of warming it , they are the ones responsable for cooling it? $\endgroup$
    – Pablo
    Apr 8, 2019 at 17:47
  • $\begingroup$ Good answer. @Pablo Look at this figure to have an idea of how big is the effect of solar variability compared with other factors affecting the climate climatechange2013.org/images/figures/WGI_AR5_Fig8-18.jpg $\endgroup$
    – Camilo Rada
    Apr 8, 2019 at 18:10
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    $\begingroup$ @Pablo - Volcanic CO2 isn't a significant contributor to global warming. Human emissions are something like 60 to 90 times greater than all volcanoes combined. But they do throw a lot of fine dust into the upper atmosphere where it reflects some sunlight away. This causes a temporary cooling effect until the dust settles, which can take a few months to a few years after the eruption. It appears that there were ongoing eruptions over many years or decades around the time of the Maunder Minimum. $\endgroup$
    – Mark
    Apr 8, 2019 at 19:58
  • $\begingroup$ Here's some more information on volcanos and climate change: climate.gov/news-features/climate-qa/… $\endgroup$
    – Mark
    Apr 8, 2019 at 19:59
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    $\begingroup$ @Pablo - That quote relates to the effect that solar activity has on the thermosphere, and has nothing to do with global warming. Here's the full context: spaceweatherarchive.com/2018/09/27/the-chill-of-solar-minimum $\endgroup$
    – Mark
    Apr 8, 2019 at 21:18

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