Recently, a new method has been proposed by Ray Schmitt (WHOI) and collaborators to use salinity patterns in the ocean to predict weather events (more specifically, rainfall) at scales from weeks to months. First, they were able to predict rainfall in the Sahara region. More recently, they have expanded their methodology to predict weather in the US and their method performed better than most of the traditional approaches (that included patterns like El Niño).

Predictions for Apr 23 – May 6, 2019 (Source: Salient Predictions) Predictions for Apr 23 – May 6, 2019 Considering that we are having more and better salinity information from satellites (SMOS and SMAP):

  • can we expect to have a better global seasonal rainfall prediction in the near future as they described?
  • What are the limitations of the approach?
  • How far in the future can we extend the approach?
  • 2
    $\begingroup$ Interesting approach. Any Indian monsoon predictions with this approach ? I would be really fascinated by that. $\endgroup$ – gansub Apr 23 '19 at 2:34
  • $\begingroup$ Not that I know of. $\endgroup$ – arkaia Apr 26 '19 at 3:47
  • 1
    $\begingroup$ yes thanks. I contacted them. They said they will get back. Maybe we can test a potential forecast for this summer if they give me data that is not available to the public. $\endgroup$ – gansub Apr 26 '19 at 3:49
  • $\begingroup$ is one of the authors somebody you know ? $\endgroup$ – gansub Apr 26 '19 at 8:06
  • $\begingroup$ Maybe. Our community is rather small :-) $\endgroup$ – arkaia Apr 26 '19 at 15:26

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