On Nov 1, I looked at the Dallas monthly weather averages (pasted below) and tried to predict the average temperature for Jan 2020. It's hard to see any trend, so I would simply predict 46.2 +/- 3.5 °F.
What else should I have measured to predict this significantly better? I was thinking about looking at solar irradiance data (with sunspot solar cycles), sea currents, or sea temperatures...what data would improve my prediction by more than 1°F?
I'm hoping for an answer like, "Well, if you go to website X, their measurement of Y indicates that temperatures will likely deviate by Z" with perhaps some science showing that this is a good way to predict long-term weather.
Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Total
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2019 45.8 50.2 55.0 66.0 73.4 79.9 84.6 87.4 85.5 65.5
2018 45.8 51.1 63.3 61.6 79.0 85.7 88.8 85.2 78.1 66.2 52.5 48.4 67.1
2017 51.2 60.6 65.7 69.3 75.4 82.5 86.6 84.4 80.6 69.6 62.4 49.7 69.8
2016 47.0 55.2 61.2 68.1 72.5 84.0 87.4 85.8 81.5 74.1 63.5 49.7 69.2
2015 44.5 45.7 56.1 65.8 70.9 82.1 87.1 87.3 82.7 71.2 58.7 53.7 67.2
2014 45.3 47.0 55.1 66.3 74.4 82.4 83.8 86.2 80.3 71.6 51.5 50.1 66.2
2013 49.1 52.0 56.4 63.0 72.3 82.6 84.5 87.1 82.4 68.2 53.5 43.1 66.2
2012 50.4 52.5 64.3 70.3 77.9 84.3 87.7 86.5 80.0 67.0 59.7 51.2 69.3
2011 42.8 49.5 61.3 70.8 72.8 86.8 91.4 93.4 80.0 68.2 57.9 47.6 68.5
2010 44.3 41.7 55.8 66.7 76.9 86.5 85.9 89.8 79.8 68.8 58.5 49.3 67.0
2009 48.1 55.8 58.9 64.8 73.3 83.8 86.6 85.3 76.2 62.7 59.5 42.7 66.5
2008 46.9 54.0 61.0 66.5 77.0 86.5 89.0 86.7 78.5 69.6 59.7 49.0 68.7
2007 42.3 49.4 63.9 62.4 74.6 81.4 83.8 87.8 81.6 72.1 61.3 49.8 67.5
2006 55.1 49.4 62.2 72.0 78.0 83.7 87.7 89.8 77.6 68.1 57.5 50.0 69.3
2005 49.5 52.6 56.7 65.5 73.5 83.6 85.1 86.8 83.7 68.8 60.8 48.1 67.9
2004 48.5 45.8 61.8 66.2 74.4 79.4 83.5 81.5 78.4 72.1 57.1 48.9 66.5
2003 43.7 45.6 56.2 66.9 75.5 79.0 86.3 86.7 74.5 68.7 59.4 49.6 66.0
2002 47.6 47.0 54.8 68.4 72.0 80.1 83.2 84.7 79.6 64.9 53.8 47.7 65.3
2001 42.7 50.2 51.8 67.8 74.2 80.3 86.7 84.9 74.7 65.0 59.7 49.5 65.6
2000 50.6 57.3 61.0 65.3 76.6 80.7 87.3 90.2 80.4 69.7 49.8 39.4 67.4
1999 48.6 55.5 56.4 67.9 73.8 82.1 86.1 90.2 79.0 69.2 62.9 51.5 68.6
1998 48.4 51.1 54.9 63.8 78.5 85.5 91.6 87.8 83.6 69.5 57.6 47.0 68.3
1997 44.0 49.5 58.3 60.4 70.1 78.8 84.9 83.1 80.2 67.2 52.1 45.6 64.5
1996 43.1 52.1 53.3 64.2 79.7 82.5 86.1 82.5 74.5 66.9 54.9 49.2 65.8
1995 48.1 52.5 56.9 64.2 73.2 79.9 85.5 85.5 76.6 67.8 54.8 47.4 66.0
1994 45.7 48.6 59.0 65.9 71.5 84.1 83.9 84.0 76.3 67.3 57.9 49.0 66.1
1993 45.1 49.0 56.1 63.3 71.9 81.7 87.3 87.5 78.2 63.8 51.6 49.5 65.4
1992 46.9 54.4 59.0 66.0 71.1 79.4 84.3 80.2 77.7 69.5 52.7 49.9 65.9
1991 42.8 53.7 59.8 67.4 75.4 81.0 85.0 82.5 75.2 68.1 51.7 50.3 66.1
1990 51.8 53.9 57.7 64.0 73.4 84.0 82.5 84.6 80.0 66.4 59.8 44.0 66.8
1989 50.0 42.2 56.7 66.4 74.3 77.9 82.8 82.3 74.7 69.0 58.2 39.0 64.5
1988 42.2 47.1 56.0 64.5 72.8 80.4 85.3 87.9 79.2 65.7 58.1 49.1 65.7
1987 44.5 50.8 53.9 65.0 75.1 79.6 83.4 86.5 77.1 66.5 55.7 47.3 65.5
1986 48.8 51.2 60.2 67.2 71.5 80.8 86.4 83.4 80.2 65.7 52.4 46.1 66.2
1985 37.8 45.0 60.8 67.2 74.0 80.2 84.4 87.6 77.7 67.6 56.3 42.3 65.1
1984 39.3 50.9 56.3 63.7 73.7 82.5 85.5 85.8 76.1 67.0 54.6 52.6 65.7
1983 43.4 48.5 54.5 60.6 69.5 77.3 83.6 84.9 77.1 67.8 57.3 34.8 63.3
1982 44.6 44.5 59.8 62.5 72.5 79.2 84.6 86.7 78.1 67.0 55.6 49.2 65.4
1981 44.6 48.9 55.7 69.2 70.5 80.3 85.9 83.4 76.2 66.1 57.5 47.3 65.5
1980 45.5 46.6 54.2 63.1 75.0 87.0 92.0 88.5 80.3 65.4 54.9 49.4 66.8