4
$\begingroup$

I found the following web-page which contains a dramatic degree-by-degree account of how climate change could play out in the future: http://globalwarming.berrens.nl/globalwarming.htm. It is more frightening than most other descriptions of the effects of global warming, and it contains no references to scientific literature or any evidence for the claims it makes.

Following is a summarised version of the claims that the text makes:

  • At two degrees Celsius of warming, many major cities will be underwater, causing half of humanity to be displaced.
  • If the world warms by two degrees, avoiding three degrees of climate change would be unlikely.
  • At anything over two degrees of warming, millions or even billions could face starvation.
  • Once three degrees of warming is reached, more warming is inevitable and societal collapse would ensue.
  • There are also more, dramatic events that are claimed will occur.

To what extent (if at all) are the effects exaggerated? What is the degree of uncertainty about the scenarios for each degree of warming? Does the page represent the "consensus" scientific view?

$\endgroup$
  • $\begingroup$ It doesn't say who Lynas is. Some glacioligsts think the consensus IPCC predictions are too conservative, and that melting may accelerate due to “tipping points" and positive feedbacks. No scientist thinks "the whole Greenland ice sheet would vanish within 140 years". $\endgroup$ – Keith McClary Nov 17 at 22:38
  • $\begingroup$ There is a lot in the linked essay, ranging from the plausible to the way-out-there. Addressing all of it in a single answer is a bit much to ask. My main point of concern is the timescale: yes, at 2°C many major cities will be underwater, but not within 30 years (melting that much ice takes time). The site appears to have no information on who the author is, and a web search seems to result in what looks like secondary school projects using the Dutch version of the page as a source. $\endgroup$ – gerrit Nov 18 at 8:56
  • $\begingroup$ "Chance of avoiding two degrees of global warming: 93%, but only if emissions of greenhouse gases are reduced by 60% over the next 10 years" That kind of aseveration needs a model to quote. If not it looks just speculation. $\endgroup$ – user18261 Nov 18 at 12:49

Your Answer

By clicking “Post Your Answer”, you agree to our terms of service, privacy policy and cookie policy

Browse other questions tagged or ask your own question.