Global economic costs of natural disasters:
In the period 1998-2017, disaster-hit countries reported direct
economic losses of 2,908 billion dolars of which climate-related disasters
accounted for 2,245 billion dolars or 77% of the total.
This compares with total reported losses for the period 1978-1997 of 1,313 billion dolars of which climate-related disasters accounted for 895 billion dolars or 68%.
The economic figures are frightening and climate change has been shown to increase these events all over the world. It is difficult to claim for specific countries winning anything at all with global warming after this introduction.
Your assumption "...Siberia may become more habitable." is proven false. Science find more extrem winters in East Asia and Europe after CC, even the average temperature raises and winters become shorter (emphasis mine):
Our simulations with the ECHAM5 general circulation model demonstrate that lower‐troposphere heating over the B‐K seas in the Eastern Arctic caused by the sea ice reduction may result in strong anticyclonic anomaly over the Polar Ocean and anomalous easterly advection over northern continents. This causes a continental‐scale winter cooling reaching −1.5°C, with more than 3 times increased probability of cold winter extremes over large areas including Europe. Our results imply that several recent severe winters do not conflict the global warming picture but rather supplement it.
Source: A link between reduced Barents‐Kara sea ice and cold winter extremes over northern continents", Climate and Dynamics, cited in Expect more extreme winters thanks to Global Warming, say scientists, Independent.
It could be debated the global beneficts of the opening of sea routes if the Arctic melts, but the costs all over the globe would exced the beneficts if we arrive to that scenario (economic looses due to floods in coastal cities among others).
At a regional and local scale some industries may benefict from CC:
- Places where summer heat atract new tourists.
- New agricultural products adapted to heat.
But the costs for the region again far outweigh the benefits.
In the first case the region will encounter problems as desertification, availability of water, biodiversity loss, ....
The second case imply the ruling agriculturists loose their crops; as an example imagine what Bordeaux can win planting oranges instead of his known red wine despite some opportunistic individual may do fortune with it (...).