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Whenever I look up the track of a cyclone on the map, I always notice that the cone of uncertainty bulges as it moves towards land/ target. I have inserted two images to show you what I mean, you could look up any other image but its always the same. Is there any specific reason for this phenomenon?

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  • $\begingroup$ Please edit the question to reduce the image size, if possible. I'm not sure how to do that. $\endgroup$ May 16 at 8:07
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As the name suggests it is a region of uncertainty.

There are many uncertainties when modeling and predicting weather systems.

When meteorologists model the path of a cyclone/typhoon/hurricane they never know for certain where a cyclone will actually end up. At any point along its path a local variation may cause it speed up, slow down, rotate at a slightly different rate or slightly change its path, left or right.

Meteorologists run several models for such cyclone systems on computers. Each uses either a different algorithm and/or different weather parameters. The results of all the models are then used to determine a region where the cyclone is likely to be in with a given time frame.

The greatest certainty is closest to the cyclone. The further away the projected path is from a cyclone the greater is the uncertainty. This results in a larger spread of possible locations where the cyclone could eventually be. When drawn on a map this region looks like a cone.

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    $\begingroup$ Perhaps a better way to say it: The further forward in time the forecast is, the greater is the uncertainty. $\endgroup$ May 16 at 18:23

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