I know that the forecast accuracy for individual days decreases exponentially past 7 days. But what about the ensemble forecasts that give you the general trend for the week after next? https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/interactive/index.php

Specifically, if the 8 to 14 day map shows temperatures well above normal, what is the percentage chance that it will be normal or below. (and vice versa)?


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