A year or so ago, I finally implemented a little mechanism which, every five minutes, fetches weather data from SMHI (Swedish official organization, having kept track of temperatures and stuff since the mid-1700s) for a GPS coordinate quite close to my house. (Less than 1 km, for privacy.)
Since I really love it when it rains, it then extracts all predictions of rain and puts them into my calendar which I constantly see on my screen, so that I can at a glance see exactly when rain is predicted for the current days and 13 more days into the future. (Obviously, each time, it deletes the old data first.)
But this is where it gets weird. It might say right now that it's going to rain sometime tomorrow, but yesterday, or hours before, it was five days until the next rain. And the very same day, it might say that it's going to rain in 10 minutes, but then it increases to 20 minutes, then an hour left, then 3 hours left, then no rain at all for 3 days. Then no rain for 7 days. Then rain tomorrow. It seems to vary so wildly as to be completely unreliable and useless.
It feels like I might as well just remove this mechanism as I could just as well just make my own random guesses and probably be as accurate.
But why is this? I thought that weather predictions were extremely reliable at this point, with global, advanced models processing enormous amounts of information with powerful computers around the clock and whatnot. Yet they seem to have no clue? Is predicting rain especially difficult, perhaps? Are just SMHI specifically very incompetent?