There is a widely circulated tweet by Frank Hoogerbeets where it seems he has predicted Turkey's earthquake a few days before. The tweet says:

Sooner or later there will be a ~M 7.5 #earthquake in this region (South-Central Turkey, Jordan, Syria, Lebanon). #deprem the map

I have searched a bit about the origin of this so-called prediction. They have a youtube channel since a few month ago, which is regularly updated by videos like this in which he analyzes the planetary alignments and claims that it has something to do with Earth's seismic activities. I haven't seen such claim anywhere before and wanted to check whether it has been scientifically approved, or does it have any merit whatsoever?


2 Answers 2


It's easy to make prediction of earthquakes in Turkey/Türkiye, it's in one of the most active seismic zones on the planet.

The February 2023 earthquake had a magnitude of 7.8, with aftershocks of magnitude 7.5.

In 2020 there was a magnitude 7 quake, 6.9 in 2014, 7.2 in 2011, 7.2 and 7.6 in 1999, 7.5 in 1976, 7 in 1964, two 7.1 quakes in 1957, 7.2 in 1953, 7.5 in 1944 and another 7.8 quake in 1939.

Turkey/Türkiye is no stranger to earthquakes. They are a continual, if not unwelcome, companion.

The alignment of planets has effective nothing to do with earthquakes. Any effect is very small.

The moon, sun, and other planets have an influence on the earth in the form of perturbations (small changes) to the gravitational field. The relative amount of influence is proportional to the objects mass, and inversely proportional to the third power of its distance from the earth.

There have been several planet-alignment scares. “The Jupiter Effect” (1974), by John Gribbin and Stephen Plagemann, predicted that a line-up on March 10, 1982, would cause catastrophes including a great earthquake on the San Andreas Fault.

That did not happen.

  • $\begingroup$ The first link (USGS) actually seems to offer some interesting input on the linking of earthquakes to tides which isn't quite as dismissive seeming as your answer? Though it limits the results to specific types of earthquakes at least. And most importantly, though they don't spell it out completely in the final two paragraphs, the gravitational field gradient from other planets on Earth is much much smaller than that of the moon, so it would seem in the end to nudge towards discounting planetary alignment. But just thought it better to go into detail rather than just a simple no! $\endgroup$ Commented Apr 10 at 8:14

Check this out.It seems obvious that gravitational forces could affect plate movement. This definitely needs more study. https://www.researchgate.net/publication/349804886_Solar_system_planetary_alignment_triggers_tides_and_earthquakes#:~:text=Planets%20interact%20with%20each%20other,revolving%20speed%20of%20the%20Earth.

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    $\begingroup$ The author is the same guy that Frank Hoogerbeets frequently cites him. It is left as an exercise for the reader to investigate the [seemingly predatory] journal. So NO, this already stinks and doesn't need anymore digging. $\endgroup$ Commented Apr 9 at 20:42
  • $\begingroup$ yeah, sorry, the writing/grammar is poor just in the abstract, this certainly doesn't look to be strongly peer reviewed evidence. Nothing in the abstract conveys convincing proof... perhaps(?) the article has something, but without it being available publicly, this isn't a useful answer. $\endgroup$ Commented Apr 10 at 8:29

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