There is a widely circulated tweet by Frank Hoogerbeets where it seems he has predicted Turkey's earthquake a few days before. The tweet says:

Sooner or later there will be a ~M 7.5 #earthquake in this region (South-Central Turkey, Jordan, Syria, Lebanon). #deprem the map

I have searched a bit about the origin of this so-called prediction. They have a youtube channel since a few month ago, which is regularly updated by videos like this in which he analyzes the planetary alignments and claims that it has something to do with Earth's seismic activities. I haven't seen such claim anywhere before and wanted to check whether it has been scientifically approved, or does it have any merit whatsoever?


1 Answer 1


It's easy to make prediction of earthquakes in Turkey/Türkiye, it's in one of the most active seismic zones on the planet.

The February 2023 earthquake had a magnitude of 7.8, with aftershocks of magnitude 7.5.

In 2020 there was a magnitude 7 quake, 6.9 in 2014, 7.2 in 2011, 7.2 and 7.6 in 1999, 7.5 in 1976, 7 in 1964, two 7.1 quakes in 1957, 7.2 in 1953, 7.5 in 1944 and another 7.8 quake in 1939.

Turkey/Türkiye is no stranger to earthquakes. They are a continual, if not unwelcome, companion.

The alignment of planets has effective nothing to do with earthquakes. Any effect is very small.

The moon, sun, and other planets have an influence on the earth in the form of perturbations (small changes) to the gravitational field. The relative amount of influence is proportional to the objects mass, and inversely proportional to the third power of its distance from the earth.

There have been several planet-alignment scares. “The Jupiter Effect” (1974), by John Gribbin and Stephen Plagemann, predicted that a line-up on March 10, 1982, would cause catastrophes including a great earthquake on the San Andreas Fault.

That did not happen.


Your Answer

By clicking “Post Your Answer”, you agree to our terms of service and acknowledge you have read our privacy policy.

Not the answer you're looking for? Browse other questions tagged or ask your own question.