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I have fitted an ETAS model (unmarked) with an independent exponential magnitude distribution to a set of earthquake data. However, I do not know how to calculate the probability of the earthquake occurrence (or the probability of no events) during a certain time interval.

Is there an explicit formula to compute the probability, like the one in the Poisson model?

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  • $\begingroup$ This may be speculation (mostly out of ignorance) but couldn't a probability be generated by running an ensemble of model runs? $\endgroup$ – BarocliniCplusplus Jan 25 '17 at 21:17
  • $\begingroup$ Check out Grand Solar Minimums. They happen every 206 years or so or less? They all have NAMES; Maunder, Dalton, Centennial as far back as you want to go. We are now in the Eddy Minimum. Check out what happens with earthquakes and volcanism during these cycles! Who needs technology if they have written records and oil paintings about each of the GSMs on this continent? The New Madrid Fault is of special importance. You could probably use this GSM cycle in your own formula if no one else has already done so. John L Casesy and UpHeaval has tons of great data. $\endgroup$ – stormy Oct 18 '18 at 21:14

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