In an answer to this question - What is the predictability of El Niño/La Niña? Isopycnal Oscillation talks about a "decrease in skill during the boreal spring as SST anomalies are abnormally variable". Today a private weather forecasting company in India made a prediction of the Indian Summer Monsoon claiming that the Indian Summer Monsoon will be unaffected by an impending El Niño in boreal summer(news report available on the net). Given the point made earlier about the so called "spring predictability barrier" my question is what is the ideal time to run this long range climate forecast? If I were to do it now(in boreal spring) then my forecast skill is likely to be lower due to the above mentioned factor. On the other hand running a simulation later in May may be of little use to the agricultural community as farmers would not have adequate time to prepare for a drought or excess rainfall a point noted by Webster et al. in 1

1) http://www.ifremer.fr/cerweb/deboyer/publications/2010_Izumo_et_al_NatureG_nv.pdf


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