I can't provide numbers, but a hopefully reasonable outline for your own calculations:
All that is required for oil to form is a source-rock brought to the right depths in a sedimentary basin and the oil migrating into a host-rock. If it is economically profitable (See Footnote) it goes into the global reserve calculation. (Petroleum Sedimentology Winfried Zimmerle, H. Zimmerle)
All you need to calculate the oil production is an estimate of the volume of host-rock that is currently under those conditions in sedimentary basins around the world.
As you can see there is a staggering area of Earth covered by sedimentary basins, and all those basins have a certain volume under oil generating conditions.
You will probably also need a rough estimate of how much oil can come out of an average source-rock, and how much will be trapped in economically profitable host-rock traps. Maybe a factor that takes into account the basin type, would also help to improve the calculation (Compressional basins would have a lot of antiform traps, while extensional basins have tilted bed traps).
I have the feeling that the total oil inventory of Earth is probably a Logistic function. Once all the oil traps are filled all the excessive oil is lost to migration or too much heat. Empty traps would mean that oil would find a place to accumulate. So it might even be a self-stabilizing system (but not in human-time-scale, but let's see how long we last).
I think that this would yield an order-of-magnitude answer. It is possible that somebody already made these calculations and I would love to see the numbers.
Footnote: Oil, like all resources, follows mining economics. If you earn money, you mine, if you loose money, you leave. This also means that if more money can be earned, there are also more deposits worth the effort. Calculations with today's reserves are almost useless, because they can't predict what people will be willing to pay for oil in the future. Even if mining becomes unprofitable, we might produce synthetic oil, just because it is a convenient chemical (energy stored in relation to mass, diffusivity, and danger). We kind of already have that with rapeseed oil, which sadly can get a better price to power rich countries cars, than feed poor countries people.