I have been studying/working with Wind Energy for a while and, one of my main responsabilities right now is to search for adequate long-term wind speed forecasting models.
However, 2 things strike me about this quest.
Wind speed forecasting is a task of great complexity for wind speed itself is highly stochastic. It depends on climate patterns, regional weather behavior, topography and atmospheric stability, or the lack of thereof, just to mention a few.
The very own idea of "long-term" varies from researcher to researcher. So far I've found authors who claim that 1 to 7 days can be considered long-term (Current status and future advances for wind speed and power forecasting,Jung & Broadwater, 2014); but also those who say one full year is the minimum threshold for long-term forecasting (The quality of weather information for forecasting of intermittent renewable generation, Sokolowska & Hossa, 2014). It's clear that forecasting horizon is highly linked to the aim of your research; therefore, when topics change, so will their forecasting horizons.
a. Isn't there a consensus about what long term means when it deals with wind speed forecasting?
b. Can it be assumed year(s)-long wind speed forecasting withsignificant accuracy is still some far-fetched, wishful thinking?
c. What are some efficient models out there yielding meaningful results?
I would like to hear your ideas/points as long as they can be backed by scientific reasoning. If you could point me out in the direction of research (proofs to your rationale) in long-term wind forecasting, I'd be downright grateful.
In case you have worked with this topic, then I'd enjoy hearing from your own experience.
Thank you so much in advance for all inputs.