Tokarska et al. (2016), a Nature article from a team of the University of Victoria, predicted a global temperature increase of 7±2.5°C and 17.2±2.5°C at the equator and at the poles respectively if all proven fossil carbon resources are burned (about 5 trillion tons of carbon).

What would be the sea level rise with this temperature?


1 Answer 1


At the upper end of that range, all ice on Earth would melt.

That would ultimately give roughly 70 metre sea level rise from melting ice alone, but it may take thousands of years before it reaches equilibrium.

Add a bit to that to account for the thermal expansion of sea water.

  • $\begingroup$ In your ice melt calculation, are you counting only landlocked ice? Floating ice melt doesn't raise sea level. $\endgroup$
    – nmtoken
    Nov 27, 2016 at 0:30
  • $\begingroup$ @nmtoken Sorry, still need to expand on this answer. From memory, Greenland would lead to around 6 metre SLR and Antarctica around 60 metre. Sea ice melt indeed does not raise sea level, however, thermal expansion does and I have much less of a feel how bad that may be compared to land ice melt. $\endgroup$
    – gerrit
    Nov 28, 2016 at 10:17
  • $\begingroup$ Citation needed. $\endgroup$
    – Matt Hall
    May 13, 2019 at 21:49

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