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Questions tagged [climate-models]

Mathematical models used for studying the dynamics of climate systems or predicting future climates.

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Are we at the beginning of a Heinrich Event?

Does our current weather trend properly reflect a Heinrich Event? It seems like the drastic weather swings are what I would expect but I realize that is not definitive. I don't see the term bandied ...
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3k views

Does this peer-reviewed study (referenced in Forbes) contradict the accepted position that climate change is real?

This Forbes article from 2013 (archive link here) with the headline "Majority Of Scientists Skeptical Of Global Warming Crisis" gets brandied around a lot. It states that Only 36 percent of ...
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How can I convert a CERA-20C total precipitation dataset of "monthly means of daily means' (edmo) to mm/month?

I downloaded an edmo dataset of 1 ensemble of the cera-20c model. I want to convert these data, which are in [m], to mm/month. Further specifications: 0.125/0.125 grid, -29/30/-30/31 area. Example of ...
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Computation of absolute precipitation forecast from precipitation anomaly forecast in NOAA CFSv2

I am currently trying to use absolute precipitation forecasts for medium term range (3wk-2mth). As no models of NOAA have absolute precipitation on this timerange, my idea was to compute those ...
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2answers
127 views

Why is a future increase in solar luminosity by 10% supposed to have disastrous consequences for life on earth when the last 30% did not?

One remarkable thing about the climate history of earth is that despite the fact that solar luminosity was fully 30% lower in the beginning, temperatures were actually quite close to today. Since then ...
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1answer
58 views

Are there natural-forcings climate projections over the 21st century?

CMIP5 offers natural-forcings-only simulations over 1850-2005, which allows comparison with the historical simulations, which allows us to show how anthropogenic forcings have affected the climate ...
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41 views

where to download NASA-NEX daily downscaled datasets?

I'm looking to download a small geographic area of the CMIP5 models part of NASA-NEX dataset. Previously I relied on the Planet OS OpenNEX GDDP website which had a great tool for selecting geographic ...
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36 views

How is the vertical distribution of water vapor changing?

In this publication about data assimilation and observations (paywall alert) in the chapter General Concepts in Meteorology and Dynamics (by Andrew Charlton-Perez, William Lahoz, Richard Swinbank, ...
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46 views

Uncertainty In ERA-Interim data

Greeting, What is the estimated uncertainty value in Temperature, relative humidity, U and V winds of ERA-Interim data?
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1answer
45 views

Creating regular grid for my data? [closed]

I have daily spatiotemporal data with covariates at 10 different locations. My question is is it possible to convert my data into a grid format?
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55 views

Do 360 day calendars affect climate models?

I was recently reading Zach Holman's blogpost on time and remembering that I've had to work with CMIP5 output that used a 360 day calendar, rather than a 365 day or a Greogrian (or Proleptic Gregorian)...
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120 views

Winter in the Northern Hemisphere in July? Can anyone explain it?

The July 2007 issue of the National Geographic Magazine dedicates several pages to "Climate Change" and "Global Warming". The author explains in detail the Earth's movements and how they provoke ...
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Gulf stream weakening affects on both ends of the system - Europe and Carribean

There have been reports about the Gulf Stream weakening. Everything I have read about this concentrates on the (possibly substantial) cooling this would cause in Europe. If this weakening occurs, ...
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22 views

Where can I find the original scientific articles on Heat index (published by either Larry P. Rothfusz or Steadman)?

I'm curious to learn more about the research and thought that went into calculating the heat index. In particular I want to understand how Steadman or Rothfusz managed to fit a model (in terms of ...
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392 views

How to run earth system, land surface and climate models?

I am interested in earth system models, land surface models and climate prediction models. I found a lot of online information on different models, including CIMP5, and the Earth System Modeling ...
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Would a volcanic winter trigger an oceanic “spring”?

There is large amounts of observations supporting the effects of volcanic eruptions on climate: A long term subtle warming effect due to $CO_2$ and a short term, but more intense cooling effect due ...
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1answer
345 views

Understanding a diagram of Earth's radiation balance

Trying to understand this image. Can someone tell me if I have the right reasoning here: Sun has 100% SW shooting to earth 30% of that 100% is reflected by clouds 70% remains Of that 70%, 45% of that ...
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1answer
417 views

Are we now and/or have we been in the RCP8.5 scenario?

Is it generally understood that we (globally) have been living in an RCP8.5 scenario over the past 7-8 years? Such that a predictive climate model using RCP8.5 assumptions that was run circa 2011 can ...
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112 views

How to relate RCM/GCM RCP climate projections to observational data for use in a hydrologic model

As a (smaller) part of my research, I want to look at climate projection data and how that might influence the hydrology within a study catchment in Rajasthan, India. For "the present day" climate, I ...
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1answer
56 views

CMIP5 multi-model ensemble, can it be shown as ensemble average?

Let’s say I have got 15 CMIP5 models’ outputs of a given variable e.g. temperature, for RCP6.5 (2020-2100) run. I want to plot how the temperature will change in the future 2020-2100 (scatter plot, x ...
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49 views

How well do past climate models stick to current observations? [duplicate]

I'm wondering how good the climate models of the recent past have been at predicting the current climate. Notably, I've heard quite a few times that the temperature was increasing faster than the ...
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2answers
112 views

Do current general circulation models model climate oscillations?

Ten years ago I studied the third report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change with some friends. I remember a bit of a hedge in the report, to the effect that general circulation models ...
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1answer
229 views

Confusion with precipitation values in CORDEX MPI-ESM rcp data

I want to analyze climate projection data for the different RCPs for a region in north western India, which has an arid climate. I chose MPI-ESM data downscaled with CORDEX. An example filename looks ...
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1answer
54 views

CMIP5 Historical experiments, what do they mean?

What are the main characteristics of CMIP5 Historical experiments? e.g. Initial conditions? Greenhouse gases forcing? How they differ from RCPs? And how they are similar to Observed reanalysis data?...
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68 views

Which CMIP5 models give the highest and lowest warming for RCP8.5?

Question is in the title. I'm doing impacts research and need to pick a couple of scenarios before downloading GCM runs. Want to pick a low one and a high one and one in the middle of the road. I'm ...
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192 views

where can I download ECHAM climate model data?

Is there any website where can I download ECHAM climate model data?
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1answer
167 views

Derive Reference Potential Evapotranspiration from Potential Evapotranspiration

I'm working on a project in Rajasthan, India involving modelling water supply and demand in a catchment. For this, I am working with WEAP which has modules for estimating groundwater recharge using a ...
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1answer
94 views

Is evapotransporation accounted for in climate models?

Is evapotransporation accounted for in climate models, or is it considered so insignificant that it's not considered? Could additional crops being planted within the last 100 to 50 years account ...
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1answer
36 views

Difference between NCEP's 20th Century daily Forecast and Analysis variables

NCEP's Twentieth Century Reanalysis (V2) provides daily variables from 1871/01/01 to 2012/12/31. Monolayer analysis variables are made available in a regular grid and forecast variables in a gaussian ...
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1answer
93 views

Cooling film area to undo global warming

It is estimated that only 100 square miles of solar panels could completely satisfy the United States demand for energy. This got me thinking: A cooling film developed at UC Boulder claims it can ...
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56 views

Why has the average low for the hottest months in Clearwater Florida about 5 degrees higher than the historical average?

Look up Clearwater Florida on Wikipedia and it gives you the average low for the Months of July and August as being 74.2F. About 3-4 years ago I picked up running as a main hobby and the temperature ...
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34 views

How is OLR power of the atmosphere distributed with altitude?

The OLR (outgoing longwave radiation) from the top of the atmosphere to space is composed of radiative energy emitted by the atmosphere at all altitudes, as well as the surface. How is the radiative ...
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128 views

Single-layer water content variables

In different reanalysis products (ERA 20C and NOAA/OAR/ESRL/PSD 20th Century daily data specifically) one can find the following variables: Total column water (ERA) Total column rain water (ERA) ...
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Good practices and pitfalls when fitting models $y = f(weather)$ and predicting $\hat{y} = \hat{f}(GCM)$

I've got a phenomenon of interest, $y$. It is determined in large part by the weather. Naturally, one becomes interested in what climate change may do to $y$, so one fits a model of the form $y = f(\...
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70 views

How are scatterometer observations standardised before being fed into reanalysis models?

This very basic question occurred to me during a talk on reanalysis data sets. Often we know the observations produced by a particular instrument, say rain radar, are biased from one year to the next ...
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1answer
113 views

Why do values stored in data files, such as climate model output, appear to be high?

I'm in doubt of some values for future scenarios of climate change that were downloaded from http://www.worldclim.org/version2. For example, the NCAR circulation model for ...
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466 views

Calculate the latitudes of a Gaussian Grid

I would like to calculate the latitude values of a Gaussian Grid of a size of my choosing. Unfortunately, I didn't find a method or a formula to do so. Where can I find this information? Alternatively,...
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2answers
348 views

What are the formulae for calculating the thermal heating effect of back radiation in greenhouse gases?

The ability of greenhouse gases to trap heat and re-radiate some of it back to the original heat source looks like a useful thermal property which could possibly be incorporated in things like double ...
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3answers
2k views

Would adding sulfur dioxide to the atmosphere have a global cooling effect?

There is reasonable evidence to suggest that the Earth is warming. The most probable cause appears to be increased CO2 in the atmosphere, which has been reasoned about for quite some time. There ...
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1answer
86 views

National Weather Service “average daily/yearly” (temp, rainfall) life cycle?

Does anyone know the "life-cycle" of the averages used for daily and yearly temperatures and rainfall by the National Weather Service? I have lived in the same (semi-desert) area for over 40 yrs, and ...
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299 views

How accurate are climate models? [closed]

"All models are wrong but some are useful". I am not against the concept of anthropogenic climate change because climate models may not be strong source of information for climate change. Observation ...
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1answer
561 views

How to calculate w-wind?

My model (AGCM) does not compute w-wind (the vertical component of the wind velocity). However, I do have the following available variables from AGCM output: ...
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176 views

North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) future prediction - Academic papers?

I am looking for academic papers which show future predictions of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) by considering climate change and the various emission scenarios. Do you have any suggestions?
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1answer
55 views

What would be the sea level rise if all fossil resources are burnt

An article of july 2015 from a team of the University of Victoria are predicting a global temperature increase of 7+-2.5°C and 17.2+-2.5°C at the equator and at the pole respectively if all fossil ...
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1answer
52 views

Interpolating Merra reanalysis

Merra re-analysis ara available for a coarser horizontal grid with resolution of 0.625 × 0.5 degrees providing differents parameters : Precipitation, Temperature ....This been said, I want to ...
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1answer
88 views

Kalman - Data assimilation with external model

I'm working with a distributed snow model which simulates Snow Depth and Snow Cover area. It takes in input some atmospherics variables : Temperature / Precipitation / Wind speed ... I want to ...
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117 views

The Search for Climate Forums [closed]

For my fictitious alternate Earth, one of the most important things to consider is that any change in geography and geology can result in profound changes in environment and climate. I've been ...
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196 views

A guide to how climate change will affect different countries [closed]

Let's assume that the climate change won't be prevented. I'm looking for a guide to show how the climate change will affect different countries. Specifically, I'm interested in comparing following ...
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3answers
148 views

Need different temperature change data sets explained

Nasa's temperature record is showing temperature increase. When I confronted a climate change skeptic with it, he replied that the data has been tempered with, and that there are different data sets ...
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563 views

NCEP reanalysis model levels

ECMWF Model Levels The above link describes the coefficients used to define the ECMWF model levels in pressure in order to compute geopotential height. Is there a similar data for NCEP reanalysis ...