Questions tagged [climate-models]

Mathematical models used for studying the dynamics of climate systems or predicting future climates.

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The Medieval Climatic Anomaly

Trying to understand this question, posted to me by a lecturer at University: "The Medieval Climatic Anomaly was distinctive in terms of the prevailing climates and forcing mechanisms operating ...
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Why rely on climate models as opposed to paleoclimate data?

Something I hear often from climate scientists, and indeed even politicians, is that we "don't understand climate change very well". And, I'm sure this is true since the climate is a complex adaptive ...
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Could someone please validate the Holmes equation [on hold]

Dr. Robert Holmes has converted the ideal gas law to T = P M / (ρ R) in this paper: (Molar Mass Version of the Ideal Gas Law Points to a Very Low Climate Sensitivity) with T = temperature P = near-...
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Would a volcanic winter trigger an oceanic “spring”?

There is large amounts of observations supporting the effects of volcanic eruptions on climate: A long term subtle warming effect due to $\ce{CO_2}$ and a short term, but more intense cooling effect ...
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Is there evidence to suggest that the release of methane clathrates in permafrost regions will impact climate change?

We can see that there are large buildups of methane clathrates in permafrost regions. Climate scientist James Hansen has predicted that the release of the permafrost methane clathrates could cause ...
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What is difference between an atmospheric model and a climate model?

I am wondering the major differences been an Atmospheric model and a Climate model? For example, Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS) versus Regional Climate Modeling System (RegCM). I recently ...
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What would the weather patterns on Earth really be like if Earth were tidally locked to the sun? [duplicate]

This question is different from How would weather change on a tidally-locked terrestrial planet?. None of its answers answer my question. I think it's answer might even have wrong information as I ...
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What would happen if I installed distributed water fountains in all of the ocean's dead zones? [closed]

As every thalassologist knows, the ocean is filled with great streches of desert with no marine photosynthetic life. What would happen if, for each of these oceanic deserts, I densely filled them with ...
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Why has CO2 decreased in the history of the Earth?

I noticed that the $\ce{CO2}$ is actually decreasing in the eon time. My guess is lush vegetation or forests began to grow which absorbed the $\ce{CO2}$ by photosynthesis? Would anyone give me any ...
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What would be the sea level rise if all fossil fuel resources are burned?

Tokarska et al. (2016), a Nature article from a team of the University of Victoria, predicted a global temperature increase of 7±2.5°C and 17.2±2.5°C at the equator and at the poles ...
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How reliable is sea-ice concentration (fraction) data in ERA-Interim?

I am using sea-ice data from the European Reanalysis from ECMWF (ERA Interim), but some grid cells over land have sea-ice information. Not a big issue so far, because spatial discretization must ...
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Which greenhouse gas has the most influence over global warming?

Carbon dioxide is the gas everyone talks about because of how much we emit, but it is the most influential greenhouse gas ? I know there are a lot of other gasses are way more potent to retain heat ...
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Is it true that a butterfly flapping its wings can result in a tornado in a distant location?

I have heard that extreme storm events can be caused simply by a butterfly flapping its wings somewhere in a distant location. Is it true that such a small disturbance in the air in one location can ...
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110 views

Are we at the beginning of a Heinrich Event?

Does our current weather trend properly reflect a Heinrich Event? It seems like the drastic weather swings are what I would expect but I realize that is not definitive. I don't see the term bandied ...
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How can I create multi model ensemble from output of 3 CMIP5 models?

I have a output of 3 models of CMIP5, they are CCSM4, IPSL and MPI. I have two scenarios RCP 2.6 and RCP 8.5 for each model. I want to know that how can I create a multi model ensemble from these 3 ...
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Equations for Milankovitch Factors?

Are there equations for the radiative forcings of the three Milankovitch factors at any given time? Or a database of values?
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290 views

A guide to how climate change will affect different countries [closed]

Let's assume that the climate change won't be prevented. I'm looking for a guide to show how the climate change will affect different countries. Specifically, I'm interested in comparing following ...
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About the actual radiative impact of greenhouse gas emission over time

Say we will emit a certain amount of greenhouse gas over the next 50 years (e.g. 100 billion tons CO2-eq in total). What would happen if I implement a certain GHG mitigation effort to cut the same ...
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Does this peer-reviewed study (referenced in Forbes) contradict the accepted position that climate change is real?

This Forbes article from 2013 (archive link here) with the headline "Majority Of Scientists Skeptical Of Global Warming Crisis" gets brandied around a lot. It states that Only 36 percent of ...
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777 views

Understanding a diagram of Earth's radiation balance

Trying to understand this image. Can someone tell me if I have the right reasoning here: Sun has 100% SW shooting to earth 30% of that 100% is reflected by clouds 70% remains Of that 70%, 45% of that ...
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Looking for evidence against some points raised in Ivar Giaever's speech on climate change

I just listened to Ivar Giaever's speech on the climate change, and he raised following points which seem significant to me: Temperature differences y/y are very small compared to natural variation ...
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Are there natural-forcings climate projections over the 21st century?

CMIP5 offers natural-forcings-only simulations over 1850-2005, which allows comparison with the historical simulations, which allows us to show how anthropogenic forcings have affected the climate ...
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How can I convert a CERA-20C total precipitation dataset of "monthly means of daily means' (edmo) to mm/month?

I downloaded an edmo dataset of 1 ensemble of the cera-20c model. I want to convert these data, which are in [m], to mm/month. Further specifications: 0.125/0.125 grid, -29/30/-30/31 area. Example of ...
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Computation of absolute precipitation forecast from precipitation anomaly forecast in NOAA CFSv2

I am currently trying to use absolute precipitation forecasts for medium term range (3wk-2mth). As no models of NOAA have absolute precipitation on this timerange, my idea was to compute those ...
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203 views

Why is a future increase in solar luminosity by 10% supposed to have disastrous consequences for life on earth when the last 30% did not?

One remarkable thing about the climate history of earth is that despite the fact that solar luminosity was fully 30% lower in the beginning, temperatures were actually quite close to today. Since then ...
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Would adding sulfur dioxide to the atmosphere have a global cooling effect?

There is reasonable evidence to suggest that the Earth is warming. The most probable cause appears to be increased CO2 in the atmosphere, which has been reasoned about for quite some time. There ...
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where to download NASA-NEX daily downscaled datasets?

I'm looking to download a small geographic area of the CMIP5 models part of NASA-NEX dataset. Previously I relied on the Planet OS OpenNEX GDDP website which had a great tool for selecting geographic ...
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How is the vertical distribution of water vapor changing?

In this publication about data assimilation and observations (paywall alert) in the chapter General Concepts in Meteorology and Dynamics (by Andrew Charlton-Perez, William Lahoz, Richard Swinbank, ...
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Interpolate Gaussian grids to regular fixed grids using bilinear interpolation?

I want to regrid GCM data available on Gaussian grids to regular grids, say at 1 deg X 1 deg. How to do this using CDO or Python ...
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Uncertainty In ERA-Interim data

Greeting, What is the estimated uncertainty value in Temperature, relative humidity, U and V winds of ERA-Interim data?
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Creating regular grid for my data? [closed]

I have daily spatiotemporal data with covariates at 10 different locations. My question is is it possible to convert my data into a grid format?
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Do 360 day calendars affect climate models?

I was recently reading Zach Holman's blogpost on time and remembering that I've had to work with CMIP5 output that used a 360 day calendar, rather than a 365 day or a Greogrian (or Proleptic Gregorian)...
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149 views

Single-layer water content variables

In different reanalysis products (ERA 20C and NOAA/OAR/ESRL/PSD 20th Century daily data specifically) one can find the following variables: Total column water (ERA) Total column rain water (ERA) ...
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Winter in the Northern Hemisphere in July? Can anyone explain it?

The July 2007 issue of the National Geographic Magazine dedicates several pages to "Climate Change" and "Global Warming". The author explains in detail the Earth's movements and how they provoke ...
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Gulf stream weakening affects on both ends of the system - Europe and Carribean

There have been reports about the Gulf Stream weakening. Everything I have read about this concentrates on the (possibly substantial) cooling this would cause in Europe. If this weakening occurs, ...
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Where can I find the original scientific articles on Heat index (published by either Larry P. Rothfusz or Steadman)?

I'm curious to learn more about the research and thought that went into calculating the heat index. In particular I want to understand how Steadman or Rothfusz managed to fit a model (in terms of ...
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How to run earth system, land surface and climate models?

I am interested in earth system models, land surface models and climate prediction models. I found a lot of online information on different models, including CIMP5, and the Earth System Modeling ...
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648 views

Are we now and/or have we been in the RCP8.5 scenario?

Is it generally understood that we (globally) have been living in an RCP8.5 scenario over the past 7-8 years? Such that a predictive climate model using RCP8.5 assumptions that was run circa 2011 can ...
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How to relate RCM/GCM RCP climate projections to observational data for use in a hydrologic model

As a (smaller) part of my research, I want to look at climate projection data and how that might influence the hydrology within a study catchment in Rajasthan, India. For "the present day" climate, I ...
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108 views

CMIP5 multi-model ensemble, can it be shown as ensemble average?

Let’s say I have got 15 CMIP5 models’ outputs of a given variable e.g. temperature, for RCP6.5 (2020-2100) run. I want to plot how the temperature will change in the future 2020-2100 (scatter plot, x ...
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50 views

How well do past climate models stick to current observations? [duplicate]

I'm wondering how good the climate models of the recent past have been at predicting the current climate. Notably, I've heard quite a few times that the temperature was increasing faster than the ...
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2answers
153 views

Do current general circulation models model climate oscillations?

Ten years ago I studied the third report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change with some friends. I remember a bit of a hedge in the report, to the effect that general circulation models ...
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343 views

Confusion with precipitation values in CORDEX MPI-ESM rcp data

I want to analyze climate projection data for the different RCPs for a region in north western India, which has an arid climate. I chose MPI-ESM data downscaled with CORDEX. An example filename looks ...
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58 views

CMIP5 Historical experiments, what do they mean?

What are the main characteristics of CMIP5 Historical experiments? e.g. Initial conditions? Greenhouse gases forcing? How they differ from RCPs? And how they are similar to Observed reanalysis data?...
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373 views

where can I download ECHAM climate model data?

Is there any website where can I download ECHAM climate model data?
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1answer
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National Weather Service “average daily/yearly” (temp, rainfall) life cycle?

Does anyone know the "life-cycle" of the averages used for daily and yearly temperatures and rainfall by the National Weather Service? I have lived in the same (semi-desert) area for over 40 yrs, and ...
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1answer
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Which CMIP5 models give the highest and lowest warming for RCP8.5?

Question is in the title. I'm doing impacts research and need to pick a couple of scenarios before downloading GCM runs. Want to pick a low one and a high one and one in the middle of the road. I'm ...
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1answer
266 views

Derive Reference Potential Evapotranspiration from Potential Evapotranspiration

I'm working on a project in Rajasthan, India involving modelling water supply and demand in a catchment. For this, I am working with WEAP which has modules for estimating groundwater recharge using a ...
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Is evapotransporation accounted for in climate models?

Is evapotransporation accounted for in climate models, or is it considered so insignificant that it's not considered? Could additional crops being planted within the last 100 to 50 years account ...
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Difference between NCEP's 20th Century daily Forecast and Analysis variables

NCEP's Twentieth Century Reanalysis (V2) provides daily variables from 1871/01/01 to 2012/12/31. Monolayer analysis variables are made available in a regular grid and forecast variables in a gaussian ...