Questions tagged [climate-models]

Mathematical models used for studying the dynamics of climate systems or predicting future climates.

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23
votes
3answers
722 views

How good were climate models of the 1990s at predicting the global temperature trends of the 2000s/2010s?

Was there a significant bias between the ensemble of climate models and the long-term temperature trends? What about spatial patterns?
21
votes
1answer
649 views

Significant difference between averaged wind speeds and averaged wind power density, for wind generation modelling?

Climate models outputs, particularly the reanalysis datasets, output wind speeds as zonal and meridional averages for the modelled time period (typically 1, 3 or 6 hours). So we get a 2-dimensional ...
19
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5answers
5k views

Is it true that a butterfly flapping its wings can result in a tornado in a distant location?

I have heard that extreme storm events can be caused simply by a butterfly flapping its wings somewhere in a distant location. Is it true that such a small disturbance in the air in one location can ...
16
votes
1answer
374 views

What is the methodology to analyze future climatic extremes using the results of climate models?

What is the accepted methodology to predict future climatic extremes using the results of climate models? I have recently read a report about climatic extremes considering climate change (MICE, 2002)....
16
votes
1answer
1k views

How much would the Greenland landmass isostatic rebound contribute to long term climate change?

In reading the question What would the geology and climate of a supposed landmass near the pole be like, assuming a thoroughly warmer planet?, it came to mind that another factor may cause a shift in ...
15
votes
1answer
341 views

What is the predictability of El Niño/La Niña?

What is the maximum period of time into the future that an El Niño event can be forecasted with reasonable accuracy and what are the limitations in predicting the time limit?
15
votes
2answers
1k views

Why does the El Niño Stop?

The reason for the initiation of the El Niño is unknown, but what is well known is how it progresses once initiated. The West Pacific warm pool begins to drift East, and the strength of the trade ...
15
votes
1answer
348 views

Can climate models reliably predict meteorological extremes?

This question is related to and extension of my previous question which was about the methodology used to predict future climatic extremes: What is the methodology to analyze future climatic extremes ...
13
votes
2answers
176 views

Are clouds significantly easier to simulate in weather models than climate models?

Cloud forcing is still one of the major uncertainties of radiative forcing in climate modeling because there are so many uncertainties in it (and parametrizations). But also because the timescale of ...
11
votes
2answers
383 views

Are there any general-purpose climate-model coupling projects?

In climate modelling, there are three major model types that form the basis of a fully coupled Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Model (AOGCM): Atmosphere circulation models Ocean circulation ...
11
votes
2answers
1k views

“The world will start COOLING DOWN in 2017”?

There's a story going around the low-grade news factories that one Dr. David Evans has predicted that the world will start cooling down in 2017. One source reports: He says fundamental flaws in how ...
11
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0answers
129 views

Will global climate change alter the interannual and/or intraseasonal variance of temperature and/or precipitation?

A quick skim of the regional chapters in AR5 shows predicted changes to average temperature and precipitation. If I understand (in rough terms) the modelling methodologies used, a variety of models (...
10
votes
1answer
4k views

Does this peer-reviewed study (referenced in Forbes) contradict the accepted position that climate change is real?

This Forbes article from 2013 (archive link here) with the headline "Majority Of Scientists Skeptical Of Global Warming Crisis" gets brandied around a lot. It states that Only 36 percent of ...
10
votes
3answers
555 views

How to run earth system, land surface and climate models?

I am interested in earth system models, land surface models and climate prediction models. I found a lot of online information on different models, including CIMP5, and the Earth System Modeling ...
10
votes
1answer
96 views

Alternatives to Plant Functional Types as parametrisations in land surface models?

Plant Functional Types (PFTs) are a discretisation of global vegetation types. They are used in land surface models to parametrise many values, including albedo, various photosynthesis parameters, and ...
10
votes
1answer
150 views

Would a volcanic winter trigger an oceanic “spring”?

There is large amounts of observations supporting the effects of volcanic eruptions on climate: A long term subtle warming effect due to $\ce{CO_2}$ and a short term, but more intense cooling effect ...
10
votes
0answers
76 views

How are scatterometer observations standardised before being fed into reanalysis models?

This very basic question occurred to me during a talk on reanalysis data sets. Often we know the observations produced by a particular instrument, say rain radar, are biased from one year to the next ...
9
votes
1answer
176 views

About the actual radiative impact of greenhouse gas emission over time

Say we will emit a certain amount of greenhouse gas over the next 50 years (e.g. 100 billion tons CO2-eq in total). What would happen if I implement a certain GHG mitigation effort to cut the same ...
9
votes
1answer
635 views

NCEP reanalysis model levels

ECMWF Model Levels The above link describes the coefficients used to define the ECMWF model levels in pressure in order to compute geopotential height. Is there a similar data for NCEP reanalysis ...
8
votes
3answers
522 views

What exactly is a model grid?

I have just begun reading some notes about modelling and can't seem to understand what a 1°x1° grid or a 2.5° grid or 1/4° grid is. I know it is something related to the resolution of the area over ...
8
votes
4answers
5k views

Why has CO2 decreased in the history of the Earth?

I noticed that the $\ce{CO2}$ is actually decreasing in the eon time. My guess is lush vegetation or forests began to grow which absorbed the $\ce{CO2}$ by photosynthesis? Would anyone give me any ...
8
votes
1answer
344 views

Confusion with precipitation values in CORDEX MPI-ESM rcp data

I want to analyze climate projection data for the different RCPs for a region in north western India, which has an arid climate. I chose MPI-ESM data downscaled with CORDEX. An example filename looks ...
8
votes
1answer
258 views

North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) future prediction - Academic papers?

I am looking for academic papers which show future predictions of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) by considering climate change and the various emission scenarios. Do you have any suggestions?
8
votes
1answer
650 views

Are we now and/or have we been in the RCP8.5 scenario?

Is it generally understood that we (globally) have been living in an RCP8.5 scenario over the past 7-8 years? Such that a predictive climate model using RCP8.5 assumptions that was run circa 2011 can ...
8
votes
2answers
598 views

How to perform regridding (1.0d to 0.5d) using bilinear interpolation for an irregular area?

I need to regrid temperature dataset from 1 degree to 0.5 degree. In case we have data available for all grids falling in a square, as shown below, we can simply regrid it using bilinear/bicubic ...
7
votes
1answer
868 views

How to calculate w-wind?

My model (AGCM) does not compute w-wind (the vertical component of the wind velocity). However, I do have the following available variables from AGCM output: ...
7
votes
2answers
642 views

Calculate the latitudes of a Gaussian Grid

I would like to calculate the latitude values of a Gaussian Grid of a size of my choosing. Unfortunately, I didn't find a method or a formula to do so. Where can I find this information? Alternatively,...
7
votes
1answer
400 views

How will global warming affect climate systems like the ENSO or the MJO?

How will global warming influence climate systems such as the Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) or the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO)?
7
votes
0answers
170 views

El Niño Spring Barrier - optimal time to run a long range climate forecast

In an answer to this question - What is the predictability of El Niño/La Niña? Isopycnal Oscillation talks about a "decrease in skill during the boreal spring as SST anomalies are ...
6
votes
1answer
100 views

Kalman - Data assimilation with external model

I'm working with a distributed snow model which simulates Snow Depth and Snow Cover area. It takes in input some atmospherics variables : Temperature / Precipitation / Wind speed ... I want to ...
6
votes
2answers
610 views

Why do winter temperatures account for most of the increase in global temperature?

If you examine the detailed temperature records that form the basis for our understanding of global warming, there are some strange anomalies (at least from a naive point of view where warming affects ...
6
votes
1answer
795 views

Specific humidity range in tropical lowlands?

I am running a land biosphere model that uses meteorological data as drivers. The model has a threshold of 32g/kg for specific humidity. The data I am using taken from a reanalysis performed by J. ...
5
votes
3answers
3k views

Would adding sulfur dioxide to the atmosphere have a global cooling effect?

There is reasonable evidence to suggest that the Earth is warming. The most probable cause appears to be increased CO2 in the atmosphere, which has been reasoned about for quite some time. There ...
5
votes
1answer
78 views

Are AO-GCMs sensitive enough to take large lakes into account?

Of course atmospheric-ocean-coupled global climate models are, by their nature, very strong on ocean-atmosphere interaction, but what about large lakes? Lake Victoria in East Africa, the N American ...
5
votes
1answer
123 views

Are 'Return Periods' being recalculated? If so, how?

The concept of 'return period' (= 'average recurrence interval', or ARI) is widely used in hydrology, and to a much lesser extent in geology, geomorphology, geophysics, etc. Whatever the application, ...
5
votes
0answers
353 views

How accurate are climate models? [closed]

"All models are wrong but some are useful". I am not against the concept of anthropogenic climate change because climate models may not be strong source of information for climate change. Observation ...
5
votes
0answers
53 views

Near Future Precipitation and Temperature estimations?

I was wondering if anyone here is familiar with temperature and precipitation estimation? I need to estimate P and T from April to July 2016. I am planning to use excel to do the calculation because ...
4
votes
4answers
5k views

Looking for evidence against some points raised in Ivar Giaever's speech on climate change

I just listened to Ivar Giaever's speech on the climate change, and he raised following points which seem significant to me: Temperature differences y/y are very small compared to natural variation ...
4
votes
2answers
3k views

Interpolate Gaussian grids to regular fixed grids using bilinear interpolation?

I want to regrid GCM data available on Gaussian grids to regular grids, say at 1 deg X 1 deg. How to do this using CDO or Python ...
4
votes
2answers
153 views

Do current general circulation models model climate oscillations?

Ten years ago I studied the third report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change with some friends. I remember a bit of a hedge in the report, to the effect that general circulation models ...
4
votes
2answers
145 views

Winter in the Northern Hemisphere in July? Can anyone explain it?

The July 2007 issue of the National Geographic Magazine dedicates several pages to "Climate Change" and "Global Warming". The author explains in detail the Earth's movements and how they provoke ...
4
votes
1answer
67 views

Uncertainty In ERA-Interim data

Greeting, What is the estimated uncertainty value in Temperature, relative humidity, U and V winds of ERA-Interim data?
4
votes
1answer
381 views

where can I download ECHAM climate model data?

Is there any website where can I download ECHAM climate model data?
4
votes
1answer
74 views

Are there natural-forcings climate projections over the 21st century?

CMIP5 offers natural-forcings-only simulations over 1850-2005, which allows comparison with the historical simulations, which allows us to show how anthropogenic forcings have affected the climate ...
4
votes
1answer
100 views

Cooling film area to undo global warming

It is estimated that only 100 square miles of solar panels could completely satisfy the United States demand for energy. This got me thinking: A cooling film developed at UC Boulder claims it can ...
4
votes
1answer
153 views

Single-layer water content variables

In different reanalysis products (ERA 20C and NOAA/OAR/ESRL/PSD 20th Century daily data specifically) one can find the following variables: Total column water (ERA) Total column rain water (ERA) ...
4
votes
1answer
76 views

Which CMIP5 models give the highest and lowest warming for RCP8.5?

Question is in the title. I'm doing impacts research and need to pick a couple of scenarios before downloading GCM runs. Want to pick a low one and a high one and one in the middle of the road. I'm ...
4
votes
2answers
442 views

What are the formulae for calculating the thermal heating effect of back radiation in greenhouse gases?

The ability of greenhouse gases to trap heat and re-radiate some of it back to the original heat source looks like a useful thermal property which could possibly be incorporated in things like double ...
4
votes
0answers
52 views

How is the vertical distribution of water vapor changing?

In this publication about data assimilation and observations (paywall alert) in the chapter General Concepts in Meteorology and Dynamics (by Andrew Charlton-Perez, William Lahoz, Richard Swinbank, ...
4
votes
0answers
158 views

How to relate RCM/GCM RCP climate projections to observational data for use in a hydrologic model

As a (smaller) part of my research, I want to look at climate projection data and how that might influence the hydrology within a study catchment in Rajasthan, India. For "the present day" climate, I ...