Questions tagged [climate-models]

Mathematical models used for studying the dynamics of climate systems or predicting future climates.

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53 views

Difference between NCEP's 20th Century daily Forecast and Analysis variables

NCEP's Twentieth Century Reanalysis (V2) provides daily variables from 1871/01/01 to 2012/12/31. Monolayer analysis variables are made available in a regular grid and forecast variables in a gaussian ...
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109 views

Cooling film area to undo global warming

It is estimated that only 100 square miles of solar panels could completely satisfy the United States demand for energy. This got me thinking: A cooling film developed at UC Boulder claims it can ...
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Why has the average low for the hottest months in Clearwater Florida about 5 degrees higher than the historical average?

Look up Clearwater Florida on Wikipedia and it gives you the average low for the Months of July and August as being 74.2F. About 3-4 years ago I picked up running as a main hobby and the temperature ...
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How is OLR power of the atmosphere distributed with altitude?

The OLR (outgoing longwave radiation) from the top of the atmosphere to space is composed of radiative energy emitted by the atmosphere at all altitudes, as well as the surface. How is the radiative ...
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170 views

Single-layer water content variables

In different reanalysis products (ERA 20C and NOAA/OAR/ESRL/PSD 20th Century daily data specifically) one can find the following variables: Total column water (ERA) Total column rain water (ERA) ...
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Good practices and pitfalls when fitting models $y = f(weather)$ and predicting $\hat{y} = \hat{f}(GCM)$

I've got a phenomenon of interest, $y$. It is determined in large part by the weather. Naturally, one becomes interested in what climate change may do to $y$, so one fits a model of the form $y = f(\...
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80 views

How are scatterometer observations standardised before being fed into reanalysis models?

This very basic question occurred to me during a talk on reanalysis data sets. Often we know the observations produced by a particular instrument, say rain radar, are biased from one year to the next ...
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122 views

Why do values stored in data files, such as climate model output, appear to be high?

I'm in doubt of some values for future scenarios of climate change that were downloaded from http://www.worldclim.org/version2. For example, the NCAR circulation model for ...
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713 views

Calculate the latitudes of a Gaussian Grid

I would like to calculate the latitude values of a Gaussian Grid of a size of my choosing. Unfortunately, I didn't find a method or a formula to do so. Where can I find this information? Alternatively,...
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481 views

What are the formulae for calculating the thermal heating effect of back radiation in greenhouse gases?

The ability of greenhouse gases to trap heat and re-radiate some of it back to the original heat source looks like a useful thermal property which could possibly be incorporated in things like double ...
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Would adding sulfur dioxide to the atmosphere have a global cooling effect?

There is reasonable evidence to suggest that the Earth is warming. The most probable cause appears to be increased CO2 in the atmosphere, which has been reasoned about for quite some time. There ...
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102 views

National Weather Service “average daily/yearly” (temp, rainfall) life cycle?

Does anyone know the "life-cycle" of the averages used for daily and yearly temperatures and rainfall by the National Weather Service? I have lived in the same (semi-desert) area for over 40 yrs, and ...
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367 views

How accurate are climate models? [closed]

"All models are wrong but some are useful". I am not against the concept of anthropogenic climate change because climate models may not be strong source of information for climate change. Observation ...
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1k views

How to calculate w-wind?

My model (AGCM) does not compute w-wind (the vertical component of the wind velocity). However, I do have the following available variables from AGCM output: ...
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285 views

North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) future prediction - Academic papers?

I am looking for academic papers which show future predictions of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) by considering climate change and the various emission scenarios. Do you have any suggestions?
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What would be the sea level rise if all fossil fuel resources are burned?

Tokarska et al. (2016), a Nature article from a team of the University of Victoria, predicted a global temperature increase of 7±2.5°C and 17.2±2.5°C at the equator and at the poles ...
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58 views

Interpolating Merra reanalysis

Merra re-analysis ara available for a coarser horizontal grid with resolution of 0.625 × 0.5 degrees providing differents parameters : Precipitation, Temperature ....This been said, I want to ...
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Kalman - Data assimilation with external model

I'm working with a distributed snow model which simulates Snow Depth and Snow Cover area. It takes in input some atmospherics variables : Temperature / Precipitation / Wind speed ... I want to ...
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The Search for Climate Forums [closed]

For my fictitious alternate Earth, one of the most important things to consider is that any change in geography and geology can result in profound changes in environment and climate. I've been ...
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304 views

A guide to how climate change will affect different countries [closed]

Let's assume that the climate change won't be prevented. I'm looking for a guide to show how the climate change will affect different countries. Specifically, I'm interested in comparing following ...
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178 views

Need different temperature change data sets explained

Nasa's temperature record is showing temperature increase. When I confronted a climate change skeptic with it, he replied that the data has been tempered with, and that there are different data sets ...
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NCEP reanalysis model levels

ECMWF Model Levels The above link describes the coefficients used to define the ECMWF model levels in pressure in order to compute geopotential height. Is there a similar data for NCEP reanalysis ...
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3k views

Interpolate Gaussian grids to regular fixed grids using bilinear interpolation?

I want to regrid GCM data available on Gaussian grids to regular grids, say at 1 deg X 1 deg. How to do this using CDO or Python ...
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5k views

Looking for evidence against some points raised in Ivar Giaever's speech on climate change

I just listened to Ivar Giaever's speech on the climate change, and he raised following points which seem significant to me: Temperature differences y/y are very small compared to natural variation ...
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Are AO-GCMs sensitive enough to take large lakes into account?

Of course atmospheric-ocean-coupled global climate models are, by their nature, very strong on ocean-atmosphere interaction, but what about large lakes? Lake Victoria in East Africa, the N American ...
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Near Future Precipitation and Temperature estimations?

I was wondering if anyone here is familiar with temperature and precipitation estimation? I need to estimate P and T from April to July 2016. I am planning to use excel to do the calculation because ...
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571 views

What exactly is a model grid?

I have just begun reading some notes about modelling and can't seem to understand what a 1°x1° grid or a 2.5° grid or 1/4° grid is. I know it is something related to the resolution of the area over ...
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466 views

Does the Labrador current affect North Atlantic climate?

This summer has seen very low sea surface temperature anomalies in the North Atlantic. Using animations of these over the last year I feel the runoff of freshwater from Hudson Bay, into the Labrador ...
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129 views

Are 'Return Periods' being recalculated? If so, how?

The concept of 'return period' (= 'average recurrence interval', or ARI) is widely used in hydrology, and to a much lesser extent in geology, geomorphology, geophysics, etc. Whatever the application, ...
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“The world will start COOLING DOWN in 2017”?

There's a story going around the low-grade news factories that one Dr. David Evans has predicted that the world will start cooling down in 2017. One source reports: He says fundamental flaws in how ...
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414 views

How will global warming affect climate systems like the ENSO or the MJO?

How will global warming influence climate systems such as the Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) or the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO)?
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627 views

Why do winter temperatures account for most of the increase in global temperature?

If you examine the detailed temperature records that form the basis for our understanding of global warming, there are some strange anomalies (at least from a naive point of view where warming affects ...
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629 views

How to perform regridding (1.0d to 0.5d) using bilinear interpolation for an irregular area?

I need to regrid temperature dataset from 1 degree to 0.5 degree. In case we have data available for all grids falling in a square, as shown below, we can simply regrid it using bilinear/bicubic ...
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830 views

Specific humidity range in tropical lowlands?

I am running a land biosphere model that uses meteorological data as drivers. The model has a threshold of 32g/kg for specific humidity. The data I am using taken from a reanalysis performed by J. ...
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Why has CO2 decreased in the history of the Earth?

I noticed that the $\ce{CO2}$ is actually decreasing in the eon time. My guess is lush vegetation or forests began to grow which absorbed the $\ce{CO2}$ by photosynthesis? Would anyone give me any ...
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El Niño Spring Barrier - optimal time to run a long range climate forecast

In an answer to this question - What is the predictability of El Niño/La Niña? Isopycnal Oscillation talks about a "decrease in skill during the boreal spring as SST anomalies are ...
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Will global climate change alter the interannual and/or intraseasonal variance of temperature and/or precipitation?

A quick skim of the regional chapters in AR5 shows predicted changes to average temperature and precipitation. If I understand (in rough terms) the modelling methodologies used, a variety of models (...
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370 views

Can climate models reliably predict meteorological extremes?

This question is related to and extension of my previous question which was about the methodology used to predict future climatic extremes: What is the methodology to analyze future climatic extremes ...
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346 views

What is the predictability of El Niño/La Niña?

What is the maximum period of time into the future that an El Niño event can be forecasted with reasonable accuracy and what are the limitations in predicting the time limit?
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What is the methodology to analyze future climatic extremes using the results of climate models?

What is the accepted methodology to predict future climatic extremes using the results of climate models? I have recently read a report about climatic extremes considering climate change (MICE, 2002)....
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How much would the Greenland landmass isostatic rebound contribute to long term climate change?

In reading the question What would the geology and climate of a supposed landmass near the pole be like, assuming a thoroughly warmer planet?, it came to mind that another factor may cause a shift in ...
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656 views

Significant difference between averaged wind speeds and averaged wind power density, for wind generation modelling?

Climate models outputs, particularly the reanalysis datasets, output wind speeds as zonal and meridional averages for the modelled time period (typically 1, 3 or 6 hours). So we get a 2-dimensional ...
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389 views

Are there any general-purpose climate-model coupling projects?

In climate modelling, there are three major model types that form the basis of a fully coupled Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Model (AOGCM): Atmosphere circulation models Ocean circulation ...
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799 views

How good were climate models of the 1990s at predicting the global temperature trends of the 2000s/2010s?

Was there a significant bias between the ensemble of climate models and the long-term temperature trends? What about spatial patterns?
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187 views

Are clouds significantly easier to simulate in weather models than climate models?

Cloud forcing is still one of the major uncertainties of radiative forcing in climate modeling because there are so many uncertainties in it (and parametrizations). But also because the timescale of ...
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Alternatives to Plant Functional Types as parametrisations in land surface models?

Plant Functional Types (PFTs) are a discretisation of global vegetation types. They are used in land surface models to parametrise many values, including albedo, various photosynthesis parameters, and ...
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Why does the El Niño Stop?

The reason for the initiation of the El Niño is unknown, but what is well known is how it progresses once initiated. The West Pacific warm pool begins to drift East, and the strength of the trade ...
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Is it true that a butterfly flapping its wings can result in a tornado in a distant location?

I have heard that extreme storm events can be caused simply by a butterfly flapping its wings somewhere in a distant location. Is it true that such a small disturbance in the air in one location can ...