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Questions tagged [enso]

The El Niño Southern Oscillation, including El Niño and La Ninã

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How to classify the ENSO phase of a year?

I am using the ONI index to classify the years of high rainfall seasons (December–February) as El Niño, Neutral or La Niña. El Niño year is classified as one if the ONI index value is +0.5 °C for 5 ...
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0answers
58 views

Will the next ENSO event be of modoki type?

Where can I find free information to learn if the forecasted ENSO El Nino event for 2nd semester 2017 will be a MODOKI one? The Japan Meteo Service also publishes the EL-NINO-MODOKI Index (below), ...
4
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1answer
402 views

Can El Niño and La Niña occur at the same time?

We often read that El Nino and La Niña occur alternatively. Are they the exact opposite of each other? Or, in other words, can they happen at the same time? (i.e. the whole Pacific Ocean has a higher ...
4
votes
1answer
112 views

Can El Niño/La Niña occur again after normal state?

As I know, El Niño and La Niña usually occurs alternatively, but is it possible that El Niño occurs again after El Niño and return to normal state?
7
votes
1answer
208 views

How will global warming affect climate systems like the ENSO or the MJO?

How will global warming influence climate systems such as the Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) or the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO)?
11
votes
2answers
218 views

What causes these odd-looking currents in the Tasman Sea?

I was looking at the model ocean current maps from earth :: a global map of wind, weather, and ocean conditions for 2015-10-07 00:00 UTC and there are a lot of odd-looking 'whirlpool' areas off the ...
4
votes
1answer
119 views

Confirmation of historical El Niño events

As this year's boreal summer monsoon draws to a close interest automatically centers around forecasts for next summer's monsoon and the likelihood of possibly another El Niño event. This brings about ...
7
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0answers
115 views

El Niño Spring Barrier - optimal time to run a long range climate forecast

In an answer to this question - What is the predictability of El Niño/La Niña? Isopycnal Oscillation talks about a "decrease in skill during the boreal spring as SST anomalies are ...
7
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0answers
89 views

Oceanic-atmospheric coupling between the Indian Ocean and the Pacific Ocean basins

The two great basins - Indian Ocean and Pacific Ocean have their respective oscillations Indian Ocean Dipole and El Nino Southern oscillation that affect the climate of the regions as well as the ...
15
votes
1answer
280 views

What is the predictability of El Niño/La Niña?

What is the maximum period of time into the future that an El Niño event can be forecasted with reasonable accuracy and what are the limitations in predicting the time limit?
14
votes
3answers
10k views

What is El Niño Modoki?

What are the characteristics that distinguishes a El Niño Modoki from a "normal" El Niño? What are the effects of El Niño Modoki on atmospheric and oceanic processes? How does it affect weather ...
8
votes
0answers
109 views

Relation of El Niño to Monsoons

Scientists are forecasting a weak to moderate El Niño event to emerge in the coming months, what causes this to happen? Once developed, how will the El Niño conditions effect progressive monsoon ...
8
votes
1answer
168 views

How does El Niño affect thunderstorm/tornado/CAPE activity in the central United States?

Or in other words, does it increase the amount of heat+moisture advection from the Gulf of Mexico into the Central United States? And is this increase associated with increased CAPE/tornado/...
7
votes
1answer
131 views

Why is the warm phase of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation associated with stronger El Niños?

This is a question inspired by the post at Cliff Mass Weather Blog: "Is a Super El Nino Coming Next Winter?". There is something else. You ever hear of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation? This is ...
12
votes
1answer
1k views

Is there any correlation between La Niña/El Niño and seismic activity?

I've read in the past that extreme precipitation levels may have an effect on seismic activity, and wondered if anyone has ever analysed the La Niña / El Niño cycles to see if there are any ...
24
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2answers
1k views

Why does El Niño only exist in the Pacific Ocean and not the Atlantic/Indian Oceans?

El Niño is associated with the weakening of the ‘normal’ pressure/temperature gradients between the western and eastern Pacific Oceans. My question is this: why does it only exist in the Pacific ...
15
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2answers
512 views

Why does the El Niño Stop?

The reason for the initiation of the El Niño is unknown, but what is well known is how it progresses once initiated. The West Pacific warm pool begins to drift East, and the strength of the trade ...
12
votes
2answers
348 views

Why does El Niño enhance the jet stream?

As quoted over here. This is especially interesting to me because El Niño tends to warm up the climate, and warmer climates are generally associated with weaker jet streams. El Niño has other ...
8
votes
1answer
75 views

Are El Niños stronger when there is a longer gap from the last El Niño?

E.g. see http://www.wired.com/2014/04/el-nino-effects/. I'm thinking.. In case a major El Niño event didn't happen this year, then would it only make it more likely that a stronger El Niño would ...
3
votes
1answer
86 views

Do large-scale modes of variability (like NAM/SAM/ENSO) exist in the ocean?

Large-scale patterns of climate variability can be explained at this Annular Modes Website. If so, have they been characterized by EOF analysis in the same way that the annular modes in the ...
9
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1answer
131 views

Does El Niño increase the amount of heat that escapes into space, or does it increase the amount of heat trapped on Earth?

So we know that surface air temperatures are warmer during El Niño events (which implies that there is more heat in the atmosphere, although maybe it's possible that it also means there's less heat in ...