Questions tagged [predictability]

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15
votes
1answer
347 views

What is the predictability of El Niño/La Niña?

What is the maximum period of time into the future that an El Niño event can be forecasted with reasonable accuracy and what are the limitations in predicting the time limit?
8
votes
1answer
240 views

About Earthquakes and their properties

I know this sounds like a crazy observation but San Francisco has a lot of HUGE buildings in the downtown area , millions of tons or probably more. Many Scientists think a big earthquake there is '...
8
votes
1answer
273 views

Can a 99.9% probability of an M≥ 5 earthquake within a 3-year period be verified?

Paper: Potential for a large earthquake near Los Angeles inferred from the 2014 La Habra earthquake (2015) Obviously there has been much discussion on the viability of earthquake prediction. This ...
7
votes
0answers
174 views

El Niño Spring Barrier - optimal time to run a long range climate forecast

In an answer to this question - What is the predictability of El Niño/La Niña? Isopycnal Oscillation talks about a "decrease in skill during the boreal spring as SST anomalies are ...
5
votes
1answer
74 views

Can the forecast N+1 days ahead be more certain than the forecast N days ahead?

The Swedish meteorological agency SMHI on its website (NB: freezes Firefox on Linux for me, likely due to plugins, works in Chrome) indicates how certain the forecast for a particular day is. Looking ...
5
votes
1answer
129 views

Are 'Return Periods' being recalculated? If so, how?

The concept of 'return period' (= 'average recurrence interval', or ARI) is widely used in hydrology, and to a much lesser extent in geology, geomorphology, geophysics, etc. Whatever the application, ...
3
votes
1answer
55 views

Why can't the meteorologists predict for sure if the day would be rainy even on the beginning of the day sometimes?

Why do the meteorologists still cannot predict if a day would be rainy or cloudy or blizzardy even on the beginning of the day sometimes? My life circles around weather and an avid weather watcher. ...
3
votes
0answers
104 views

What is the plausability/legitimacy of the San Andreas Fault 'Big One' Megaquake mechanism?

In the ScienceAlert article "New estimates suggest the 'big one' in San Andreas could be much worse than we thought" they make the claim that: Researchers have forecast a mega-quake running the ...
2
votes
2answers
187 views

What does the term spreading the risk mean, with regard to natural disasters?

What does the phrase "spreading the risk" mean with regards to risk assessment of natural hazards/disasters? I came across the phrase in the World Economic Forum document, A vision for managing ...
2
votes
1answer
70 views

Hazard event predictions. Examples of predictions causing more harm than good

Could anyone give me any examples of attempts to predict earthquakes AND tropical storms that have caused more harm then good (e.g: because an area was predicted to have low levels of risk and ...
2
votes
0answers
55 views

What regions of the US will have *improved* climate given current predictions of climate change?

This is really a two part question: 1) Is there a good model for mapping climate conditions in a particular location to pleasantness or livability or something like that? 2) If there is such a model,...
1
vote
2answers
615 views

Spatial extent and predictability of various hazards.

My question concerns the following three hazards: earthquakes, hurricanes and drought. In terms of spatial extent (wide spread, limited), I believe that earthquakes generally have the most limited ...
1
vote
0answers
50 views

The climate effect of the Russian industrial collapse in the early 90's

In 1982 ExxonMobil made this diagram with a slightly excess of the concentration of atmospheric carbon dioxide and global warming. Can this error be explained by the Russian industrial collapse in the ...
1
vote
0answers
42 views

Forecast accuracy in different climate types

Which climate is easier to be predicted. In other words. Which climate forecast results better accuracy? Is there any climate more convenient to be predicted? Is there any paper concerning this topic?...
0
votes
1answer
58 views

Which months in Japan probability lowest of natural disaster?

I want travel Japan but it gets earth quakes, tsunamis, typhoons. Which months lowest probability of these natural disasters?
0
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0answers
40 views

Why estimate evapotranspiration using machine learning techniques while we can calculate it with Penmann monteith equation?

I find many researchers use Machine Learning Techniques and Algorithms to calculate the EvapoTranspiration, while there’s also the Penmann Monteith equation that gives us the result. Does this say we ...