Questions tagged [weather-forecasting]

Questions about the application of weather data in meteorology/forecasting.

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1
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0answers
29 views

How accurate is the NWS 8 to 14 day outlook?

I know that the forecast accuracy for individual days decreases exponentially past 7 days. But what about the ensemble forecasts that give you the general trend for the week after next? https://www....
11
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2answers
390 views

Do wind predictions have confidence scores?

I’m a sailing captain in training and my community members asked about confidence in wind predictions. They were unhappy with the large variation between different wind predictions. The speed and ...
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1answer
31 views

Why are all the variables ( DRY_DEP_FLUX and WET_DEP_FLUX) zero in a wrf model output in all the time steps

I am working on WRF_GHG, I would like to calculate dry and wet deposition in the dry and wet seasons for CO2 and CH4 gases. However, when I check the wrf output, I see that all the variables (...
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1answer
28 views

Is there any open source, stochastic rain forecast data available for the UK?

I'm sometimes frustrated by publicly available precipitation forecasts, such as those offered by the Met Office or Google. If I understand these forecasts correctly, they tell me: The expected volume ...
4
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1answer
68 views

Some website or institute with integrated statistics on forecasting the occurrence of rainbows

I am a lay person in meteorology, maybe this is not the right place for my question, but I would like to ask then. My question is simple: is there a website or institute that has integrated statistics ...
2
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1answer
42 views

How to find the top level of the planetary boundary layer in WRF?

I am working on WRF_Chem, I would like to calculate the concentration of CO2 just in the Planetary boundary layer(I mean, I want to calculate CO2 from surface to top of PBL).in WRF How can I calculate ...
3
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1answer
92 views

How big was the eye of the El Reno tornado?

As far as I know, the EF-3 El Reno tornado is by far the largest tornado since meteorologists have started observing them. Tornadoes also have eyes, like hurricanes, but are way too small compared to ...
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0answers
16 views

Which factors determine the predominant precipitation type of supercells during tornado outbreaks?

A tale of two outbreaks. April 27, 2011 featured classic supercells that were extremely-fast moving (forward speeds of 60+ mph) in a northeast direction. James Spann noted this while covering the EF4 ...
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0answers
57 views

Why is it so warm in the Pacific Northwest of North America right now - mid April 2021?

Temperatures are 5-7 degrees Celsius above average in southwestern British Columbia, and it's surreal for it to be so warm and sunny when the deciduous trees are still mostly barren.
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3answers
135 views

Over what distance can weather be assumed to be constant?

Good afternoon, I'm working on an application makes calls to a weather API for different coordinates across the United States. Instead of getting the weather at each and every point, I'm planning on ...
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0answers
33 views

What are the leading methods for temporally interpolating wind data?

Weather providers, such as GFS and ECMWF usually provide their data in 3-6 hour intervals. What would be the best method to interpolate between the intervals to get a good intermediate wind model? I ...
4
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0answers
34 views

How to download the GFS 2m Temperature data?

I am attempting to download the 2m temperature forecast from the GFS forecasts archived by AWS's open dataset archive. I am having some issues figuring out the feature name to search for in the file ...
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0answers
47 views

Has a hurricane ever crossed the Atlantic Ocean more than once?

I noticed that Paulette (2020) is still a named storm and is now approaching northern Africa and Spain. It is forecast to begin moving west again in the coming week. Has a hurricane / tropical storm ...
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0answers
40 views

What is the best way to calculate anomaly of meteorological variables with the (GFS/GEFS) forecast

To calculate the anomaly of a variable (temperature, for example) I need the climatology (at least 30 years) of that variable. Which climatology data source should I use? Should I use the "...
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0answers
107 views

If the Isthmus between North & South America did not exist what would happen to the Gulfstream and thus the weather in Western Europe?

Given the differences in temperature, salinity and elevation between the Pacific & Atlantic oceans, what would happen to the Gulf Stream and thus the weather in western Europe and also the eastern ...
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2answers
111 views

Can they still not predict rain even one week in advance?

Every ten minutes, I make an API call to the SMHI's API with the GPS coordinates less than 1 km from here (which cannot possibly matter for accuracy, but does for privacy). SMHI is the Swedish weather ...
-2
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1answer
79 views

Why do the highest temperature levels occur at midday?

I also see that weather forecast sites show temperatures decreasing starting from 3 to 4 pm, but the thermometer shows that it starts droping at sunset.
-3
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1answer
81 views

Are rainbows a reaction from earths natural release of gas after a rain? [closed]

In my studies, Ive dropped a limestone or porous stone into water, with salt and sugar. The results where an impressive light show of color flashes. With the Earths natural release of gas, these ...
2
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1answer
144 views

Are weather changes periodic? (Do the same weather patterns repeat over years?) (Cycles) (Journal paper suggestion)

I am wondering if there is long term (10 year, 7 year, 20 year) periodic patterns Similar to short term seasonal and periodic patterns in weather such as sea/land wind, monsoon, ENSO, ocean sea-saw, ...
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0answers
33 views

Weather measurements of how long ago affects the amount of rainfall? (Which lags of temperature, precipitation, windspeed, radiation. humidity. )

I am trying to predict the amount of rainfall using weather measurements (temperature, precipitation, humidity, wind speed, surface radiation). For long term, midterm, and short term predictions, ...
5
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1answer
125 views

How/where is randomness/stochasticity used in weather prediction

I am seeking information on how weather models use randomness (if at all). From what I can gather daily weather forecasting uses partial differential equations with initial and boundary conditions ...
6
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2answers
103 views

Are airliners sensors used to feed weather prediction models?

Weather balloons, as well as specially prepared aircrafts, are used to retrieve several atmosphere parameters at different altitudes that are latter used to feed mathematical models for weather ...
3
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1answer
93 views

How do they determine the “feels like” temperatures for weather data?

I'm pulling air temperature and other weather stats from various APIs. There's this concept called "feels like temperature", separate from "actual temperature". Apparently, this is the temperature ...
2
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2answers
136 views

What is the simplest meteorological model to operate?

For teaching purposes I am looking for an atmospheric model that can be easily installed and the input data can be easily read and prepared. Preferably I would like to run a global low resolution ...
1
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1answer
49 views

What is the “forecast hour of product”

The NCEP website describes the file naming format of the GFS forecast data. https://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/products/gfs/ What does "forecast hour of product" mean?
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1answer
27 views

Ice Water Content from GFS file

I am working my way through this paper: http://downloads.hindawi.com/journals/amete/2017/8707234.pdf Equations 10 and 11 require the ice water content. I can't find it in the GFS grib2 file ...
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0answers
44 views

Digital alternative to hand analyzed maps

I am a staunch believer in the benefit of hand analyzing maps to get a good feel for the state of the atmosphere before getting into my forecast. With Covid-19 keeping us out of the office, one of the ...
4
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2answers
76 views

How will air quality, weather and climate improve because of the containment, social distancing and lockdown during the COVID-19 outbreak?

The actions taken to contain the corona-virus epidemic is closing any form of human activities in the world. Schools are closed in most cities of the world, people are told to stay at home and it ...
7
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0answers
80 views

Was this spherical device used in weather forecasting in the 1960's?

The New York Times obituary Robert M. White, Who Revolutionized Weather Forecasts, Dies at 92 shows the image below. It looks like it might be a model of the Earth but I can't tell for sure. Can the ...
4
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1answer
119 views

How to get GHI data from MERRA-2?

Help Requested Does anyone know if MERRA2 contains hourly Global Horizontal Irradiance (GHI) data, or some other measurement which we can use to calculate GHI?, If so, could you please let me know ...
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1answer
43 views

Temperature at 2 m MERRA2

I need MERRA2 data with Temperature at 2m. I'm checking on https://disc.gsfc.nasa.gov/daac-bin/FTPSubset2.pl but I can't find this variable. Suggestions where I can find them? Or anyone that did ...
6
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0answers
148 views

5G interference with weather observation, a thing already?

The scientific community expressed concern that global 5G would potentially threaten weather forecasts by scrambling frequencies in the microwave spectrum used for water vapor, atmospheric temperature ...
2
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1answer
172 views

ECMWF vs NOAA forecast data accuracy

I'm a novice software developer who's about to write some Python scripts for getting weather data from several U.S. stations, as well as a few in the Pacific (for checking Southern Oscillation Index &...
0
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1answer
68 views

Weather Forecast [closed]

I am working on an experimental weather station that has a minimal set of sensors: GPS (which gives me the location, date and time); Thermometer (which gives me the air temperature); Barometer (which ...
7
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2answers
138 views

Where to get temperature sounding model forecast data?

I want to know the current lapse rate for a given point in the US. In other words, I want "live" temperature data at various altitudes. Live is flexible -- I'm generally OK with a forecast which is ...
2
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2answers
107 views

How to interpret precipitation probability?

Below is the Dallas precipitation forecast I just got (requested from Google at 10am, Nov 29, 2019). From this, what is the probability that a 10cm (diameter) cup placed in a Dallas park from 4:00pm ...
4
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1answer
87 views

What is a reasonable range of values for resistance to heat flux?

I am developing a simple parameterisation scheme script to predict surface temperature. The script calculates six heat fluxes including sensible heat flux using a resistance to heat flux parameter. ...
1
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2answers
85 views

Weather Forecasts

Are weather forecasts such as on weather.com or other apps continuously updated for each location and updated by an operator or is it just a computer automatically updating the forecast?
2
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0answers
150 views

Predicting the weather in two months [closed]

EDIT 6/13/2020: Actual Jan average from same website was 50.3 °F, which is even above my one-sigma bound, so I failed badly. What did I miss now that we have hindsight? On Nov 1, I looked at the ...
1
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0answers
63 views

Short-term forecast of Europe by using synoptic charts

I should make a short-term forecast of Europe by using synoptic charts. I'm finding it really hard so I'd be glad if you help me. 'В' means high atmospheric pressure I'm trying to figure out the ...
3
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1answer
63 views

Clouds altitude

I'm amateur photographer and professional programmer and I'm trying to create an application to predict exceptionally beautiful sunsets (something like https://www.flickr.com/photos/photogtom43/...
2
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0answers
40 views

Night sky visibility prediction [closed]

Given a location (e.g. Osoyoos, British Columbia) and human eyes only, what's the ranges for the nights of the year most likely to give clear astronomical viewing? What historical data sources might ...
2
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2answers
90 views

Local Weather Forecast (Self-Learning Algorithm)

First of all, the question! : Is it possible to predict local weather tendencies for the upcoming hours (let's say 2-3 hours) using only local data? If yes, which data is needed to make such ...
1
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2answers
292 views

WRF/Chem: Editing NetCDF (wrfchemi files) for own emissions

Does anybody here have any experience with editing wrfchemi outputs from the prep_chem utility so that I overwrite the file with my own emissions? I am knowledgeable in python, but I am not that well ...
0
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0answers
45 views

Why it doesn’t always rain with lightning and thunder when it’s hot [duplicate]

Thunderstorms happen after a period of warm weather. There are times though in the summer after it’s been warm for a while and even after it was 95 degrees Fahrenheit, the thunderstorms they predicted ...
7
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1answer
289 views

I'm still confused about what “probability of precipitation” means

I'm trying to understand what weather forecasts mean more precisely. As I understand it from reading Wikipedia, blogs, etc., the percentage value for rain/precipitation that you see in a forecast is ...
3
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1answer
106 views

What is the physical meaning of second moment of wind velocity?

I have been reading some documents about meteorological data and many of them mention the second moment of wind velocity. I guess it has to do with the way the wind is changing but in such case I ...
1
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1answer
69 views

How big of an event is needed to trigger a long winter?

Could a small meteor or natural nuclear explosion melt an ice cap on Earth to trigger a mini ice age without the event being observed by people? Can the Earth have an overlaying thermal cycle that ...
1
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1answer
69 views

How to predict when the pressure will change

For example, on windy.com I see that there is a high pressure area to the west of Washington in the Pacific Ocean. What heuristic techniques could I use to guess if the high pressure area will migrate ...
5
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0answers
89 views

Using salinity to predict rainfall

Recently, a new method has been proposed by Ray Schmitt (WHOI) and collaborators to use salinity patterns in the ocean to predict weather events (more specifically, rainfall) at scales from weeks to ...