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Questions tagged [weather-forecasting]

Questions about the application of weather data in meteorology/forecasting.

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56 views

How big of an event is needed to trigger a long winter?

Could a small meteor or natural nuclear explosion melt an ice cap on Earth to trigger a mini ice age without the event being observed by people? Can the Earth have an overlaying thermal cycle that ...
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1answer
32 views

How to predict when the pressure will change

For example, on windy.com I see that there is a high pressure area to the west of Washington in the Pacific Ocean. What heuristic techniques could I use to guess if the high pressure area will migrate ...
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0answers
68 views

Using salinity to predict rainfall

Recently, a new method has been proposed by Ray Schmitt (WHOI) and collaborators to use salinity patterns in the ocean to predict weather events (more specifically, rainfall) at scales from weeks to ...
5
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1answer
103 views

How do I interpret this “sky cover” chart?

The image below is a screenshot of forecasted sky cover in percentage for various parts of Arizona. Is the sky cover percentage the percentage of each pixel that has cloud, or is it the percentage of ...
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1answer
81 views

Weather forecast based on pressure, temperature and humidity only (for implementation in Arduino)

I have a project for my school to make, and I'd like to have some materials of research/graphs of dependencies about how the weather is predicted (i.e. cloudy, sunny, rainy). I've been searching the ...
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1answer
134 views

How much further can weather forecasting models go before the limits of Chaos Theory set in?

Refer to a report here that mentions the huge advancement in weather forecasting models since the 1980s: How much better? “A modern five-day forecast is as accurate as a one-day forecast was in ...
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2answers
186 views

What is are the benefits of map 500 hPa geopotential for weather forecasting?

From the weather forecasting perspective: what is the main reason for showing just map of 500 hPa geopotential? Are there any practical or theoretical reasons? Why do not show 600 hPa geopotential or ...
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0answers
59 views

Difference between GDAS and GFS data

What is the exact difference between GFS 0.25 and GDAS 0.25 data which is available in http://nomads.ncep.noaa.gov/. And are the GFS 0.5 and 1 degree data available in the above url and here the same?...
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1answer
57 views

On what basis are hurricanes,cyclones or typhoons named? [duplicate]

now its well known that common names are used to name weather storms but on what bases are they named ? is it the person who first notices them ? Is it the the most common name in the region where the ...
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6answers
302 views

Are there any weather services that provide hourly forecasts beyond 7 days?

I'm working on a small project and am trying to find a way to get the very extended hour-by-hour forecast for a location. Most services (Darksky, etc.) seem to offer 7-day extended hourly forecasts, ...
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2answers
90 views

Can you have a low pressure with no clouds?

My understanding is that low pressure is usually associated with cloudy skies, however in the last week I observed a day that had low pressure reading but no clouds. Is this possible or did I perhaps ...
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0answers
48 views

For how long can the wind blow unabated on a “trade wind route”?

Take a specific point at sea level (less than 100 meters above it) on a "trade wind" oceanic route. For example, somewhere on Labrador-Ireland route, at roughly 50 degrees of latitude north. Let's say,...
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40 views

Forecast accuracy in different climate types

Which climate is easier to be predicted. In other words. Which climate forecast results better accuracy? Is there any climate more convenient to be predicted? Is there any paper concerning this topic?...
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1answer
44 views

Where can I get good raw meteorological data for Middle East?

I live in the Middle East and I am really fond of understanding meteorology and using raw data make my own weather predictions. However, a limitation I encounter here is that most raw meteorological ...
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0answers
38 views

Will global Warming continue to produce winter storms in the Northeast US?

Will GW just cause more winter storms in Northeast US or will all of US have colder winters ? This winter in East TX we had three record cold snaps and I lost a lot of Camellia Japonica buds and ...
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1answer
181 views

What wind forecast datasets are available for forcing a wave forecast model?

I am trying to set up a spectral wave model for waves forecasting in the Mediterranean. I need the meteorological forecast for this region. I am aware of the ECMWF datasets. But unfortunately, only ...
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1answer
214 views

If Earth had rings would gravity exerted by Earth decrease?

If Earth had enough mass in its own rings, more than the weight of Earth: What could it decrease the gravity to? Would the atmosphere have more depth or be thinner? What would the weather be like? ...
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2answers
237 views

What is the highest balloons possible in a chain?

The BU60-1 balloon attained an altitude of 53.0 km (32.9 mi; 173,900 ft). Weather permitting, would a series of climbable balloons in a chain be able to be linked from the ground to that height of ...
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0answers
23 views

What 3-day smoke forecasts are height-resolved?

In order to accurately perform weather forecasts during large wildfire events, weather models must include the smoke. Smoke reflects sunlight back to space, decreasing the light absorbed by the ...
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2answers
359 views

Are weather forecast models more accurate for either high or low temperatures?

The other day our low temperature for the day was ~10 degrees F below our forecast low. I've noticed this before in the winter, especially when temperatures start to go below 0 degrees F (-18 degrees ...
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2answers
739 views

Can the Bering Sea Rule be used to predict the weather?

Recently, a colleague explained that the recent cold spell in the eastern United States could have been predicted using the Bering Sea Rule. The idea is that 17-21 days after a storm appears in the ...
6
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1answer
226 views

How do spectral methods work in the context of numerical weather prediction models?

I am broadly familiar with the concept of numerical weather prediction models using various finite methods to solve the primitive equations used in these models, but how do spectral methods work, ...
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2answers
63 views

Looking for fun and illuminating weather visualizations

I'm looking for illuminating and fun weather data visualizations like e.g. EarthWindMap. More specifically, I was hoping to find wind vectors overlayed onto a prognostic chart to visualize how the ...
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0answers
46 views

What software for cloud motion forecasting

I have a large sequence of images in .png (10 second resolution) from sky image system. Is there any inexpensive software for processing images and forecasting cloud motion? I have found out that ...
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3answers
879 views

Do high pressure systems draw air towards them?

I refer to the this very recent article, which quotes Andrew Watkins (Manager of Climate Prediction Services at the Australian Bureau of Meteorology). My understanding has always been that air flows ...
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1answer
242 views

Why do tropical cyclones get more attention than extratropical cyclones?

For tropical cyclones we have carefully tracked every instance of them, and naming them as soon as they have reached a certain intensity... flying aircraft in to measure conditions... compiling ...
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3answers
229 views

Websites providing visual weather data

What websites are there providing visual weather data? The question actually contains the past and future weather. The purpose is for this question is to provide a list of easy-to-access websites that ...
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1answer
76 views

Human hurricane forecasting?

I'm referring to an article I've read on Ars Technica about the differences in various weather models. One thing that stood out for me was a mention of Forecast models typically show their skill ...
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1answer
70 views

Why don't they give hurricanes uncommon names?

So people with common names don't have to share names with a destructive hurricane.
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0answers
134 views

Average life span of a hurricane

Wondering if there's data of what could be the average life span of an hurricane considering global warming as factor.
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1answer
151 views

How to make wind forecast like Predictwind.com? Which mathematical model has been used?

PredictWind.com is able to make wind forecasts on a very precise 8 km scale. For educational reasons I would need the mathematical model used or at least one very similar. Searching on the internet I ...
3
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1answer
85 views

How long does it take to refresh the entire water supply in the Earth's atmosphere?

Water in the atmosphere is present as vapour, liquid and ice. It is just a small amount of the Earth's total water supply. I'm wondering how long it will take to rain down all the water from the ...
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3answers
142 views

Why don't weather forecast models normally take solar eclipses into account?

Since there is a total solar eclipse somewhere almost every year, I would have thought it would be included as a standard option in weather forecast models. However, I've learned that is not really ...
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2answers
185 views

How much is Solar Radiation effected by Axial Tilt or Obliquity?

I know that the Axial Tilt of Earth is about 23.4° - 23.5°. And I would like to know how much this change effects Solar Radiation for particular geo-location. What is the Axial Tile change rate? How ...
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2answers
678 views

How to calculate air temperature for given time, location and altitude?

I would like to calculate (estimate) air temperature at given time, location and altitude. All I have is air pressure for 20°C. The formula based on NTP (Normal Temperature and Pressure) to calculate ...
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1answer
65 views

Freely available and re-distributable weather observations over the US?

I am looking for a (small) data set of weather observations for a few (say 5-20) weather stations in the US, with observations of precipitation, temperature and wind speed for the year 2016. The data ...
2
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1answer
418 views

How do I convert a latitude/longitude coordinate to a NOAA GFS grid cell location?

Looking at this GFS http://nomads.ncep.noaa.gov:9090/dods/gfs_0p50/gfs20170707/gfs_0p50_12z.ascii?tmax2m[0:2][124:128][279:283] The range defined by the second and third set of brackets specify the ...
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1answer
445 views

How to properly setup a domain in NWP model (WRF) according to meteorological input data

I want to setup a mesoscale weather prediction model (WRF or something else) to work with NCEP/GFS meteorological input data with resolution of 0.25deg. My question is how to choose a proper size for ...
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1answer
512 views

How to calculate 3-hour flux values in ERA-Interim?

Referring to the post: https://www.myroms.org/forum/viewtopic.php?f=30&t=3003 I understood how to calculate the slhf and sshf for 03, 06, 09 and 12 time steps. But I have values for 00, 15, 18 ...
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1answer
100 views

ISA Model and GFS data

I have a newbie question... I always used the International Standard Atmosphere model whenever I needed to calculate the temperature in a given altitude. It always looked accurate to me... However,...
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0answers
273 views

Do U & V vectors differ depending on GRIB layers (wind vs current)?

Essentially I would like to know how current direction "DIR C" and wind direction "WDIR" for gribs is computed. I'm trying to compute some angles from u and v vectors in grib files. My understanding ...
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2answers
562 views

Calculate the latitudes of a Gaussian Grid

I would like to calculate the latitude values of a Gaussian Grid of a size of my choosing. Unfortunately, I didn't find a method or a formula to do so. Where can I find this information? Alternatively,...
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0answers
303 views

Learn weather forecast

Is there any website for videos/articles that explains how to read maps or other graphics use to make forecast prediction (more advanced than the weather channel please) ? It could be about any ...
3
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1answer
314 views

upper air data(observation) and analysis step for GFS model

Global forecast systems(GFS) gives analysis and forecasts at different time steps. Their main source of input is upper air data which is recorded only twice in a day(observation comes at 00 and 12). ...
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1answer
316 views

How can I learn to make mesoscale/synoptic analyses of major weather events?

With the tornado outbreak in southern Georgia and northern/central Florida on Sunday that has tragically resulted in significant loss of life, eyes are once again on the weather. I was particularly ...
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2answers
232 views

Is there a standardized way to define weather icons based on quantifiable data?

Weather APIs often provide weather icons which symbolize the state of the sky at a given point, or as an average. Is there a standardized way to define what the icon should be, based on quantifiable ...
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1answer
1k views

What is this “crystal ball” located at a meteorological station?

I found what looks like a "crystal ball" in a meteorological station in the Vlădeasa mountains (Romania). What is its purpose?
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0answers
48 views

What kind of storm tracks produce snow in the eastern United States?

What storm tracks are favorable for snow in the eastern United States? Articles like this one on a winter storm in the Northeast in 2011 indicate that storm tracks are important in snowfall amounts. ...
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1answer
179 views

Global Gridded Daily Temperature (at 2m): difference between GEFS Reforcast and NCEP Reanalysis

I am looking for gridded/raster estimates of daily mean temperature (ideally ambient/at 2 meter) for a public health analysis. Specifically, I want to correlate daily mortality counts with daily mean ...
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1answer
4k views

Is it typically colder after a storm?

I've heard that it's colder after a storm. I think this is an interesting question, not least because of the implicit comparison: colder than what? A few different comparisons come to mind, and still ...