Questions tagged [weather-forecasting]

Questions about the application of weather data in meteorology/forecasting.

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44 views

Weather Forecast [closed]

I am working on an experimental weather station that has a minimal set of sensors: GPS (which gives me the location, date and time); Thermometer (which gives me the air temperature); Barometer (which ...
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2answers
69 views

Where to get temperature sounding model forecast data?

I want to know the current lapse rate for a given point in the US. In other words, I want "live" temperature data at various altitudes. Live is flexible -- I'm generally OK with a forecast which is ...
2
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1answer
38 views

How to interpret precipitation probability?

Below is the Dallas precipitation forecast I just got (requested from Google at 10am, Nov 29, 2019). From this, what is the probability that a 10cm (diameter) cup placed in a Dallas park from 4:00pm ...
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1answer
48 views

What is a reasonable range of values for resistance to heat flux?

I am developing a simple parameterisation scheme script to predict surface temperature. The script calculates six heat fluxes including sensible heat flux using a resistance to heat flux parameter. ...
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2answers
75 views

Weather Forecasts

Are weather forecasts such as on weather.com or other apps continuously updated for each location and updated by an operator or is it just a computer automatically updating the forecast?
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0answers
87 views

Predicting the weather in two months

On Nov 1, I looked at the Dallas monthly weather averages (pasted below) and tried to predict the average temperature for Jan 2020. It's hard to see any trend, so I would simply predict 46.2 +/- 3.5 °...
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0answers
56 views

Short-term forecast of Europe by using synoptic charts

I should make a short-term forecast of Europe by using synoptic charts. I'm finding it really hard so I'd be glad if you help me. 'В' means high atmospheric pressure I'm trying to figure out the ...
3
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1answer
59 views

Clouds altitude

I'm amateur photographer and professional programmer and I'm trying to create an application to predict exceptionally beautiful sunsets (something like https://www.flickr.com/photos/photogtom43/...
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38 views

Night sky visibility prediction [closed]

Given a location (e.g. Osoyoos, British Columbia) and human eyes only, what's the ranges for the nights of the year most likely to give clear astronomical viewing? What historical data sources might ...
2
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2answers
60 views

Local Weather Forecast (Self-Learning Algorithm)

First of all, the question! : Is it possible to predict local weather tendencies for the upcoming hours (let's say 2-3 hours) using only local data? If yes, which data is needed to make such ...
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1answer
42 views

WRF/Chem: Editing NetCDF (wrfchemi files) for own emissions

Does anybody here have any experience with editing wrfchemi outputs from the prep_chem utility so that I overwrite the file with my own emissions? I am knowledgeable in python, but I am not that well ...
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45 views

Why it doesn’t always rain with lightning and thunder when it’s hot [duplicate]

Thunderstorms happen after a period of warm weather. There are times though in the summer after it’s been warm for a while and even after it was 95 degrees Fahrenheit, the thunderstorms they predicted ...
7
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1answer
143 views

I'm still confused about what “probability of precipitation” means

I'm trying to understand what weather forecasts mean more precisely. As I understand it from reading Wikipedia, blogs, etc., the percentage value for rain/precipitation that you see in a forecast is ...
3
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1answer
72 views

What is the physical meaning of second moment of wind velocity?

I have been reading some documents about meteorological data and many of them mention the second moment of wind velocity. I guess it has to do with the way the wind is changing but in such case I ...
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23 views

How does a change in the tilt of the Earth effect climate? [duplicate]

Could the Earth survive if the axis was less or more of the tilt of that what it is now, and by how much? How would the Earth act if the axis was pushed to an extreme tilt or lack there of?
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1answer
66 views

How big of an event is needed to trigger a long winter?

Could a small meteor or natural nuclear explosion melt an ice cap on Earth to trigger a mini ice age without the event being observed by people? Can the Earth have an overlaying thermal cycle that ...
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1answer
52 views

How to predict when the pressure will change

For example, on windy.com I see that there is a high pressure area to the west of Washington in the Pacific Ocean. What heuristic techniques could I use to guess if the high pressure area will migrate ...
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83 views

Using salinity to predict rainfall

Recently, a new method has been proposed by Ray Schmitt (WHOI) and collaborators to use salinity patterns in the ocean to predict weather events (more specifically, rainfall) at scales from weeks to ...
5
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1answer
204 views

How do I interpret this “sky cover” chart?

The image below is a screenshot of forecasted sky cover in percentage for various parts of Arizona. Is the sky cover percentage the percentage of each pixel that has cloud, or is it the percentage of ...
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1answer
700 views

Weather forecast based on pressure, temperature and humidity only (for implementation in Arduino)

I have a project for my school to make, and I'd like to have some materials of research/graphs of dependencies about how the weather is predicted (i.e. cloudy, sunny, rainy). I've been searching the ...
6
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1answer
150 views

How much further can weather forecasting models go before the limits of Chaos Theory set in?

Refer to a report here that mentions the huge advancement in weather forecasting models since the 1980s: How much better? “A modern five-day forecast is as accurate as a one-day forecast was in ...
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2answers
384 views

What is are the benefits of map 500 hPa geopotential for weather forecasting?

From the weather forecasting perspective: what is the main reason for showing just map of 500 hPa geopotential? Are there any practical or theoretical reasons? Why do not show 600 hPa geopotential or ...
3
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0answers
102 views

Difference between GDAS and GFS data

What is the exact difference between GFS 0.25 and GDAS 0.25 data which is available in http://nomads.ncep.noaa.gov/. And are the GFS 0.5 and 1 degree data available in the above url and here the same?...
3
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1answer
67 views

On what basis are hurricanes,cyclones or typhoons named? [duplicate]

now its well known that common names are used to name weather storms but on what bases are they named ? is it the person who first notices them ? Is it the the most common name in the region where the ...
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6answers
315 views

Are there any weather services that provide hourly forecasts beyond 7 days?

I'm working on a small project and am trying to find a way to get the very extended hour-by-hour forecast for a location. Most services (Darksky, etc.) seem to offer 7-day extended hourly forecasts, ...
2
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2answers
121 views

Can you have a low pressure with no clouds?

My understanding is that low pressure is usually associated with cloudy skies, however in the last week I observed a day that had low pressure reading but no clouds. Is this possible or did I perhaps ...
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0answers
50 views

For how long can the wind blow unabated on a “trade wind route”?

Take a specific point at sea level (less than 100 meters above it) on a "trade wind" oceanic route. For example, somewhere on Labrador-Ireland route, at roughly 50 degrees of latitude north. Let's say,...
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40 views

Forecast accuracy in different climate types

Which climate is easier to be predicted. In other words. Which climate forecast results better accuracy? Is there any climate more convenient to be predicted? Is there any paper concerning this topic?...
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1answer
49 views

Where can I get good raw meteorological data for Middle East?

I live in the Middle East and I am really fond of understanding meteorology and using raw data make my own weather predictions. However, a limitation I encounter here is that most raw meteorological ...
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0answers
40 views

Will global Warming continue to produce winter storms in the Northeast US?

Will GW just cause more winter storms in Northeast US or will all of US have colder winters ? This winter in East TX we had three record cold snaps and I lost a lot of Camellia Japonica buds and ...
7
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1answer
187 views

What wind forecast datasets are available for forcing a wave forecast model?

I am trying to set up a spectral wave model for waves forecasting in the Mediterranean. I need the meteorological forecast for this region. I am aware of the ECMWF datasets. But unfortunately, only ...
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1answer
244 views

If Earth had rings would gravity exerted by Earth decrease?

If Earth had enough mass in its own rings, more than the weight of Earth: What could it decrease the gravity to? Would the atmosphere have more depth or be thinner? What would the weather be like? ...
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2answers
294 views

What is the highest balloons possible in a chain?

The BU60-1 balloon attained an altitude of 53.0 km (32.9 mi; 173,900 ft). Weather permitting, would a series of climbable balloons in a chain be able to be linked from the ground to that height of ...
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0answers
24 views

What 3-day smoke forecasts are height-resolved?

In order to accurately perform weather forecasts during large wildfire events, weather models must include the smoke. Smoke reflects sunlight back to space, decreasing the light absorbed by the ...
10
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2answers
407 views

Are weather forecast models more accurate for either high or low temperatures?

The other day our low temperature for the day was ~10 degrees F below our forecast low. I've noticed this before in the winter, especially when temperatures start to go below 0 degrees F (-18 degrees ...
10
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2answers
819 views

Can the Bering Sea Rule be used to predict the weather?

Recently, a colleague explained that the recent cold spell in the eastern United States could have been predicted using the Bering Sea Rule. The idea is that 17-21 days after a storm appears in the ...
5
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1answer
305 views

How do spectral methods work in the context of numerical weather prediction models?

I am broadly familiar with the concept of numerical weather prediction models using various finite methods to solve the primitive equations used in these models, but how do spectral methods work, ...
3
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2answers
68 views

Looking for fun and illuminating weather visualizations

I'm looking for illuminating and fun weather data visualizations like e.g. EarthWindMap. More specifically, I was hoping to find wind vectors overlayed onto a prognostic chart to visualize how the ...
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0answers
47 views

What software for cloud motion forecasting

I have a large sequence of images in .png (10 second resolution) from sky image system. Is there any inexpensive software for processing images and forecasting cloud motion? I have found out that ...
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3answers
1k views

Do high pressure systems draw air towards them?

I refer to the this very recent article, which quotes Andrew Watkins (Manager of Climate Prediction Services at the Australian Bureau of Meteorology). My understanding has always been that air flows ...
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1answer
276 views

Why do tropical cyclones get more attention than extratropical cyclones?

For tropical cyclones we have carefully tracked every instance of them, and naming them as soon as they have reached a certain intensity... flying aircraft in to measure conditions... compiling ...
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3answers
306 views

Websites providing visual weather data

What websites are there providing visual weather data? The question actually contains the past and future weather. The purpose is for this question is to provide a list of easy-to-access websites that ...
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1answer
79 views

Human hurricane forecasting?

I'm referring to an article I've read on Ars Technica about the differences in various weather models. One thing that stood out for me was a mention of Forecast models typically show their skill ...
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1answer
74 views

Why don't they give hurricanes uncommon names?

So people with common names don't have to share names with a destructive hurricane.
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0answers
201 views

Average life span of a hurricane

Wondering if there's data of what could be the average life span of an hurricane considering global warming as factor.
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1answer
179 views

How to make wind forecast like Predictwind.com? Which mathematical model has been used?

PredictWind.com is able to make wind forecasts on a very precise 8 km scale. For educational reasons I would need the mathematical model used or at least one very similar. Searching on the internet I ...
3
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1answer
90 views

How long does it take to refresh the entire water supply in the Earth's atmosphere?

Water in the atmosphere is present as vapour, liquid and ice. It is just a small amount of the Earth's total water supply. I'm wondering how long it will take to rain down all the water from the ...
7
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3answers
152 views

Why don't weather forecast models normally take solar eclipses into account?

Since there is a total solar eclipse somewhere almost every year, I would have thought it would be included as a standard option in weather forecast models. However, I've learned that is not really ...
3
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2answers
218 views

How much is Solar Radiation effected by Axial Tilt or Obliquity?

I know that the Axial Tilt of Earth is about 23.4° - 23.5°. And I would like to know how much this change effects Solar Radiation for particular geo-location. What is the Axial Tile change rate? How ...
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2answers
949 views

How to calculate air temperature for given time, location and altitude?

I would like to calculate (estimate) air temperature at given time, location and altitude. All I have is air pressure for 20°C. The formula based on NTP (Normal Temperature and Pressure) to calculate ...