Questions tagged [weather-forecasting]

Questions about the application of weather data in meteorology/forecasting.

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2
votes
1answer
128 views

Are weather changes periodic? (Do the same weather patterns repeat over years?) (Cycles) (Journal paper suggestion)

I am wondering if there is long term (10 year, 7 year, 20 year) periodic patterns Similar to short term seasonal and periodic patterns in weather such as sea/land wind, monsoon, ENSO, ocean sea-saw, ...
0
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0answers
32 views

Weather measurements of how long ago affects the amount of rainfall? (Which lags of temperature, precipitation, windspeed, radiation. humidity. )

I am trying to predict the amount of rainfall using weather measurements (temperature, precipitation, humidity, wind speed, surface radiation). For long term, midterm, and short term predictions, ...
5
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1answer
88 views

How/where is randomness/stochasticity used in weather prediction

I am seeking information on how weather models use randomness (if at all). From what I can gather daily weather forecasting uses partial differential equations with initial and boundary conditions ...
7
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2answers
94 views

Are airliners sensors used to feed weather prediction models?

Weather balloons, as well as specially prepared aircrafts, are used to retrieve several atmosphere parameters at different altitudes that are latter used to feed mathematical models for weather ...
3
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1answer
51 views

How do they determine the “feels like” temperatures for weather data?

I'm pulling air temperature and other weather stats from various APIs. There's this concept called "feels like temperature", separate from "actual temperature". Apparently, this is the temperature ...
3
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2answers
130 views

What is the simplest meteorological model to operate?

For teaching purposes I am looking for an atmospheric model that can be easily installed and the input data can be easily read and prepared. Preferably I would like to run a global low resolution ...
1
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1answer
39 views

What is the “forecast hour of product”

The NCEP website describes the file naming format of the GFS forecast data. https://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/products/gfs/ What does "forecast hour of product" mean?
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1answer
24 views

Ice Water Content from GFS file

I am working my way through this paper: http://downloads.hindawi.com/journals/amete/2017/8707234.pdf Equations 10 and 11 require the ice water content. I can't find it in the GFS grib2 file ...
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0answers
41 views

Digital alternative to hand analyzed maps

I am a staunch believer in the benefit of hand analyzing maps to get a good feel for the state of the atmosphere before getting into my forecast. With Covid-19 keeping us out of the office, one of the ...
4
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1answer
49 views

How will air quality, weather and climate improve because of the containment, social distancing and lockdown during the COVID-19 outbreak?

The actions taken to contain the corona-virus epidemic is closing any form of human activities in the world. Schools are closed in most cities of the world, people are told to stay at home and it ...
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0answers
16 views

3D data from GFS files

I am using GFS forecast files from here: https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/data-access/model-data/model-datasets/global-forcast-system-gfs and processing them with cfgrib: https://github.com/ecmwf/cfgrib ...
7
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0answers
77 views

Was this spherical device used in weather forecasting in the 1960's?

The New York Times obituary Robert M. White, Who Revolutionized Weather Forecasts, Dies at 92 shows the image below. It looks like it might be a model of the Earth but I can't tell for sure. Can the ...
4
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1answer
61 views

How to get GHI data from MERRA-2?

Help Requested Does anyone know if MERRA2 contains hourly Global Horizontal Irradiance (GHI) data, or some other measurement which we can use to calculate GHI?, If so, could you please let me know ...
1
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1answer
32 views

Temperature at 2 m MERRA2

I need MERRA2 data with Temperature at 2m. I'm checking on https://disc.gsfc.nasa.gov/daac-bin/FTPSubset2.pl but I can't find this variable. Suggestions where I can find them? Or anyone that did ...
5
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0answers
102 views

5G interference with weather observation, a thing already?

The scientific community expressed concern that global 5G would potentially threaten weather forecasts by scrambling frequencies in the microwave spectrum used for water vapor, atmospheric temperature ...
2
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1answer
81 views

ECMWF vs NOAA forecast data accuracy

I'm a novice software developer who's about to write some Python scripts for getting weather data from several U.S. stations, as well as a few in the Pacific (for checking Southern Oscillation Index &...
0
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1answer
55 views

Weather Forecast [closed]

I am working on an experimental weather station that has a minimal set of sensors: GPS (which gives me the location, date and time); Thermometer (which gives me the air temperature); Barometer (which ...
7
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2answers
111 views

Where to get temperature sounding model forecast data?

I want to know the current lapse rate for a given point in the US. In other words, I want "live" temperature data at various altitudes. Live is flexible -- I'm generally OK with a forecast which is ...
2
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2answers
82 views

How to interpret precipitation probability?

Below is the Dallas precipitation forecast I just got (requested from Google at 10am, Nov 29, 2019). From this, what is the probability that a 10cm (diameter) cup placed in a Dallas park from 4:00pm ...
3
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1answer
58 views

What is a reasonable range of values for resistance to heat flux?

I am developing a simple parameterisation scheme script to predict surface temperature. The script calculates six heat fluxes including sensible heat flux using a resistance to heat flux parameter. ...
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2answers
80 views

Weather Forecasts

Are weather forecasts such as on weather.com or other apps continuously updated for each location and updated by an operator or is it just a computer automatically updating the forecast?
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0answers
145 views

Predicting the weather in two months [closed]

EDIT 6/13/2020: Actual Jan average from same website was 50.3 °F, which is even above my one-sigma bound, so I failed badly. What did I miss now that we have hindsight? On Nov 1, I looked at the ...
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0answers
61 views

Short-term forecast of Europe by using synoptic charts

I should make a short-term forecast of Europe by using synoptic charts. I'm finding it really hard so I'd be glad if you help me. 'В' means high atmospheric pressure I'm trying to figure out the ...
3
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1answer
62 views

Clouds altitude

I'm amateur photographer and professional programmer and I'm trying to create an application to predict exceptionally beautiful sunsets (something like https://www.flickr.com/photos/photogtom43/...
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0answers
38 views

Night sky visibility prediction [closed]

Given a location (e.g. Osoyoos, British Columbia) and human eyes only, what's the ranges for the nights of the year most likely to give clear astronomical viewing? What historical data sources might ...
2
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2answers
79 views

Local Weather Forecast (Self-Learning Algorithm)

First of all, the question! : Is it possible to predict local weather tendencies for the upcoming hours (let's say 2-3 hours) using only local data? If yes, which data is needed to make such ...
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2answers
192 views

WRF/Chem: Editing NetCDF (wrfchemi files) for own emissions

Does anybody here have any experience with editing wrfchemi outputs from the prep_chem utility so that I overwrite the file with my own emissions? I am knowledgeable in python, but I am not that well ...
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0answers
45 views

Why it doesn’t always rain with lightning and thunder when it’s hot [duplicate]

Thunderstorms happen after a period of warm weather. There are times though in the summer after it’s been warm for a while and even after it was 95 degrees Fahrenheit, the thunderstorms they predicted ...
7
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1answer
206 views

I'm still confused about what “probability of precipitation” means

I'm trying to understand what weather forecasts mean more precisely. As I understand it from reading Wikipedia, blogs, etc., the percentage value for rain/precipitation that you see in a forecast is ...
3
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1answer
83 views

What is the physical meaning of second moment of wind velocity?

I have been reading some documents about meteorological data and many of them mention the second moment of wind velocity. I guess it has to do with the way the wind is changing but in such case I ...
1
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1answer
67 views

How big of an event is needed to trigger a long winter?

Could a small meteor or natural nuclear explosion melt an ice cap on Earth to trigger a mini ice age without the event being observed by people? Can the Earth have an overlaying thermal cycle that ...
1
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1answer
57 views

How to predict when the pressure will change

For example, on windy.com I see that there is a high pressure area to the west of Washington in the Pacific Ocean. What heuristic techniques could I use to guess if the high pressure area will migrate ...
5
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0answers
88 views

Using salinity to predict rainfall

Recently, a new method has been proposed by Ray Schmitt (WHOI) and collaborators to use salinity patterns in the ocean to predict weather events (more specifically, rainfall) at scales from weeks to ...
5
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1answer
443 views

How do I interpret this “sky cover” chart?

The image below is a screenshot of forecasted sky cover in percentage for various parts of Arizona. Is the sky cover percentage the percentage of each pixel that has cloud, or is it the percentage of ...
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2answers
2k views

Weather forecast based on pressure, temperature and humidity only (for implementation in Arduino)

I have a project for my school to make, and I'd like to have some materials of research/graphs of dependencies about how the weather is predicted (i.e. cloudy, sunny, rainy). I've been searching the ...
7
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1answer
160 views

How much further can weather forecasting models go before the limits of Chaos Theory set in?

Refer to a report here that mentions the huge advancement in weather forecasting models since the 1980s: How much better? “A modern five-day forecast is as accurate as a one-day forecast was in ...
2
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2answers
565 views

What is are the benefits of map 500 hPa geopotential for weather forecasting?

From the weather forecasting perspective: what is the main reason for showing just map of 500 hPa geopotential? Are there any practical or theoretical reasons? Why do not show 600 hPa geopotential or ...
3
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0answers
141 views

Difference between GDAS and GFS data

What is the exact difference between GFS 0.25 and GDAS 0.25 data which is available in http://nomads.ncep.noaa.gov/. And are the GFS 0.5 and 1 degree data available in the above url and here the same?...
3
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1answer
72 views

On what basis are hurricanes,cyclones or typhoons named? [duplicate]

now its well known that common names are used to name weather storms but on what bases are they named ? is it the person who first notices them ? Is it the the most common name in the region where the ...
6
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6answers
330 views

Are there any weather services that provide hourly forecasts beyond 7 days?

I'm working on a small project and am trying to find a way to get the very extended hour-by-hour forecast for a location. Most services (Darksky, etc.) seem to offer 7-day extended hourly forecasts, ...
2
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2answers
250 views

Can you have a low pressure with no clouds?

My understanding is that low pressure is usually associated with cloudy skies, however in the last week I observed a day that had low pressure reading but no clouds. Is this possible or did I perhaps ...
2
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0answers
51 views

For how long can the wind blow unabated on a “trade wind route”?

Take a specific point at sea level (less than 100 meters above it) on a "trade wind" oceanic route. For example, somewhere on Labrador-Ireland route, at roughly 50 degrees of latitude north. Let's say,...
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0answers
43 views

Forecast accuracy in different climate types

Which climate is easier to be predicted. In other words. Which climate forecast results better accuracy? Is there any climate more convenient to be predicted? Is there any paper concerning this topic?...
1
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1answer
54 views

Where can I get good raw meteorological data for Middle East?

I live in the Middle East and I am really fond of understanding meteorology and using raw data make my own weather predictions. However, a limitation I encounter here is that most raw meteorological ...
3
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0answers
43 views

Will global Warming continue to produce winter storms in the Northeast US?

Will GW just cause more winter storms in Northeast US or will all of US have colder winters ? This winter in East TX we had three record cold snaps and I lost a lot of Camellia Japonica buds and ...
7
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1answer
192 views

What wind forecast datasets are available for forcing a wave forecast model?

I am trying to set up a spectral wave model for waves forecasting in the Mediterranean. I need the meteorological forecast for this region. I am aware of the ECMWF datasets. But unfortunately, only ...
-1
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1answer
279 views

If Earth had rings would gravity exerted by Earth decrease?

If Earth had enough mass in its own rings, more than the weight of Earth: What could it decrease the gravity to? Would the atmosphere have more depth or be thinner? What would the weather be like? ...
1
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2answers
384 views

What is the highest balloons possible in a chain?

The BU60-1 balloon attained an altitude of 53.0 km (32.9 mi; 173,900 ft). Weather permitting, would a series of climbable balloons in a chain be able to be linked from the ground to that height of ...
3
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0answers
25 views

What 3-day smoke forecasts are height-resolved?

In order to accurately perform weather forecasts during large wildfire events, weather models must include the smoke. Smoke reflects sunlight back to space, decreasing the light absorbed by the ...
10
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2answers
455 views

Are weather forecast models more accurate for either high or low temperatures?

The other day our low temperature for the day was ~10 degrees F below our forecast low. I've noticed this before in the winter, especially when temperatures start to go below 0 degrees F (-18 degrees ...