Questions tagged [weather-forecasting]

Questions about the application of weather data in meteorology/forecasting.

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0answers
48 views

What kind of storm tracks produce snow in the eastern United States?

What storm tracks are favorable for snow in the eastern United States? Articles like this one on a winter storm in the Northeast in 2011 indicate that storm tracks are important in snowfall amounts. ...
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1answer
187 views

Global Gridded Daily Temperature (at 2m): difference between GEFS Reforcast and NCEP Reanalysis

I am looking for gridded/raster estimates of daily mean temperature (ideally ambient/at 2 meter) for a public health analysis. Specifically, I want to correlate daily mortality counts with daily mean ...
6
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1answer
5k views

Is it typically colder after a storm?

I've heard that it's colder after a storm. I think this is an interesting question, not least because of the implicit comparison: colder than what? A few different comparisons come to mind, and still ...
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1answer
116 views

How can I implement a visualization of archived convective data from numerical weather models?

I've always found geographic visualizations of surface/mixed-layer CAPE models and other weather data to be incredibly interesting. Here's a map featured by the Capital Weather Gang over at the ...
5
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1answer
73 views

Can the forecast N+1 days ahead be more certain than the forecast N days ahead?

The Swedish meteorological agency SMHI on its website (NB: freezes Firefox on Linux for me, likely due to plugins, works in Chrome) indicates how certain the forecast for a particular day is. Looking ...
4
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2answers
174 views

Are we changing Earth's weather with global warming?

I think that when the air heats up in the day, the radiation from the ground contributes way more to its heating at altitudes more than 300 meters above the ground than convection currents of air heat ...
6
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3answers
364 views

Publicly available data set with ensemble forecasts and observations?

I am looking for a publicly available, easy to download, small data set of ensemble forecasts (or reforecasts), with corresponding observations or reanalysis. We are planning to illustrate some ...
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1answer
94 views

Could a large burst of super-heated or super-cooled air cause tornadoes to fall apart?

We know how tornadoes form: when areas of hot air and cold air mingle, causing rotation. We can even see them form on the radar. Yet, for all of our technology, we can't stop such events from ...
5
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0answers
560 views

Why did the GFS switch to hourly forecasts through hour 120?

About a month ago, the GFS was upgraded. Among other things (like making parallel GFS data available), the upgrade notice said: Include hourly forecasts out to 120 hr Now, this seemed ...
4
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2answers
3k views

Interpolate Gaussian grids to regular fixed grids using bilinear interpolation?

I want to regrid GCM data available on Gaussian grids to regular grids, say at 1 deg X 1 deg. How to do this using CDO or Python ...
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1answer
225 views

Temperature Fluctuation in a Day

I was looking at the temperature plots in Nashik, India and noticed an intriguing trend. What could explain this trend? [screenshot from WeatherUnderground forecast] Shouldn't the plot be smoother? ...
6
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1answer
163 views

Why do forecast areas on weather.gov appear as twisted squares?

I get my weather forecasts from good ol' NOAA's weather.gov site. On the detailed site weather pages, there's a map that shows the forecast area as a green square (for Boston at least, the square is ...
5
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1answer
227 views

What is the difference between the freezing level and 0C isotherm in NOAA's GFS?

I'm playing around with NOAA's GFS forecast data and I see that it contains both a "0C isotherm level" and a "Highest tropospheric freezing level". Could someone tell me the difference between these ...
7
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2answers
720 views

Long-term Wind Speed Forecasting: reality or wishful thinking?

I have been studying/working with Wind Energy for a while and, one of my main responsabilities right now is to search for adequate long-term wind speed forecasting models. However, 2 things strike me ...
7
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2answers
1k views

Help interpreting a wind rose diagram

Can someone comment on technical explanation of the wind rose attached? I can understand the wind is blowing between WNW & SSW with speed of 7-11 km/h. For frequency of 11-16 km/h its blowing ...
4
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1answer
130 views

Best sources / methods to find additional cloud information for current weather conditions?

I posted this question on Aviation Stack Exchange here. One of the responses suggested that I post my question on Earth Science Stack Exchange. I need a source that reports necessary current cloud ...
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0answers
78 views

Worldwide weather maps database

I am searching for a database (a free one would be great) that would give me, for any chosen rectangular area on earth, historic data about pressure, sea water temperature, wind (including both speed ...
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101 views

Sailing Around the World on a Jet Stream

An ultra light plane can stay in flight up to 2400 km (the World Record) with out an engine using thermal lift. Can a huge kite like airship (not a blimp) be built to indefinitely sail in and out of ...
4
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2answers
1k views

Historical NWS GFS forecast data

The National Weather Service (NWS) makes the results from its Global Forecast System model (GFS) available for download as GRIB2 files. While accessing current (or recent) forecasts is straight-...
4
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2answers
126 views

Need help understanding variables that relate to meterology terminology

I am working on a project in predicting the weather and I had a few brief questions. I understand that radar works by bouncing waves off of precipitation and measuring reflectivity. I have a variable ...
2
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2answers
112 views

Global warming and winter temperatures

What causes cold temperatures to move earlier than they usually move? Here in Buffalo the weather was 9 °C. However, everyone had winter coats and hats on. There was no snow, but it was very very ...
8
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1answer
100 views

Are the storm cones introduced by Robert Fitzroy still in use?

In 1860 or so, following the tragic wreck of the Royal Charter with the loss of over 400 lives, storm cones were installed in many UK ports, under the direction of Admiral Fitzroy, head of the ...
4
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1answer
231 views

Why is it always rainy in Addis Ababa?

I watch the news and in the weather forecast it's always rainy in central Africa, especially in Addis Ababa. Why is that?
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0answers
100 views

Initial indexes for calculating the Fire Weather Index (in the Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index System)

I am applying the Canadian Fire Weather Index (FWI) on the Forest Fire Warning System of my laboratory. My problem is in calculating the Fine Fuel Moisture Code (FFMC), the Duff Moisture Code (DMC) ...
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3answers
399 views

Algorithmically Determining the Rainy Season

I have historical precipitation data for hundreds of cities around the world. I would like to algorithmically determine when the rainy season (if exists) is for each location. Are there any algorithms ...
13
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2answers
2k views

How to interpret hourly precipitation forecast?

How should I interpret the hourly precipitation forecasts? Most of the time, when there is rain in the forecast, the maximum Probability of Precipitation (PoP) in the hourly forecast is about the ...
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3answers
410 views

Predicting school closures with historical weather prediction data?

I'm interested in predicting when the local schools will be closed due to snow and other winter weather. I have a list of school closure dates and a rough sense of the criteria used to determine the ...
7
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1answer
815 views

Statistical weather prediction

Assuming I have time evolution of air temperature, air pressure, wind speed, wind direction, relative humidity and cloudiness, how can I predict weather based on this information? I know that high ...
11
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1answer
2k views

Intuitive explanation of precipitation amount

I'm trying to learn how to make sense of numbers in a forecast. I can interpret temperature and wind speed, but I don't know what to make of rainfall. What does it mean, for a human, that there will ...
14
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1answer
4k views

What is the meaning of -999 degrees Celsius?

I was checking the weather forecast just now, and it is showing that it "feels like -999 °C". I never heard or saw -999 °C before. I searched other weather channels, and they were showing that it ...
11
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1answer
412 views

What does the term “Snow Interval” mean?

When looking Weather Station readings from the National Weather Service website, what does the term "Snow Interval (inches)" actually mean? 6 hr and 24 hr readings are obvious, but I can't seem to ...
5
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1answer
434 views

How do I interpret the specs of a weather balloon?

I'm planning a high-altitude weather balloon project (to around 100000 feet, or 30 km) some time down the line to take video and pictures of near space altitudes and I have some questions I need to ...
18
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2answers
4k views

What are the applications of hydrostatic solvers vs non-hydrostatic solvers in numerical weather prediction?

In the atmospheric dynamics research community, many colleagues of mine happen to use atmospheric models that have non-hydrostatic equation solvers, e.g. the UK MetOffice model, and WRF-ARW: The ...
20
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1answer
730 views

What data does a skilled meteorologist look at to predict thunderstorms?

An uneducated layman like me would just look at CAPE numbers and make rough guesses on possible thunderstorms. In a related but non-duplicate question, vertical wind shear is discussed. If we are ...
10
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1answer
126 views

Is there a convenient place to get vertical wind shear info for my location?

Now that it's thunderstorm season here in New Hampshire, it would be nice to be able to find out what the vertical wind shear is like at the altitudes that affect thunderstorm formation, to guess ...
14
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3answers
14k views

If it rains harder, does it mean the rain's duration will be shorter?

If it rains real hard, is there a chance the rain's duration will be shorter? I think the if the rain in the clouds disperses with such force the rain will be over faster than if it was just a light ...
11
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2answers
312 views

How do meteorologists grade their past forecasts?

In every professional field, practitioners may come home at the end of the day and say "Yeah! I knocked it out of the park!", or alternatively "Oh, man. Gotta do better tomorrow." What about ...
24
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3answers
7k views

What do weather forecasters mean when they say “50% chance of rain”?

What do weather forecasters mean when they say "50% chance of rain"? Even more confusing: weather report often says something like "30% chance of rain. >10mm", then the next day "70% chance of rain &...
20
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2answers
3k views

What are the major differences between weather models and climate models?

Some weather models include GFS (Global Forecast System) and NAM (North American Mesoscale Model). Some climate models include CCSM (Community Climate System Model) and the NASA GISS (Goddard ...
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4answers
4k views

How do weather models work?

We use different weather models all the time, such as the ECMWF and the GFS. These models are simply amazing to me. How do these models work? I know they have to take in various data points - what ...