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One of the most widely used index to quantify the drought events is the standardized precipitation index (SPI) and it is actually based on precipitation time series only. The index is used, among others, also by the NOAA. I'll borrow the description of the index from a scientific article (Farinosi et al 2018) Standardized precipitation Index (McKee et ...


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It is likely that the forecast is made using an ensemble of runs from a weather model. As weather is chaotic (deterministic, but heavily dependent on initial conditions), each run will show a different pattern of precipitation, and the probability is likely to be simply the proportion of model runs that exhibited precipitation in that location during that ...


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