# Tag Info

10

All season forecast systems are subject to uncertainty. The uncertainty arises from an imperfect initial state, such as initial conditions, and from imperfect models, such as uncertainty due to, numerical methods, parametric models, data sampling. Forecasting systems utilize ensembles and their spread to quantify uncertainty. See the spread in forecasts ...

8

The presence or absence of a large number of massive buildings has no bearing on where and when earthquakes occurs, or their magnitudes; particularly along major fault systems such as the San Andreas Fault. Earthquakes mainly occur on tectonic plate boundaries, such as the San Andreas Fault, near San Francisco, or the fault systems through Turkey, Italy, ...

7

Typically, days with conditions which might produce local instabilities would produce a less certain forecast than a day with a stabilize pattern even if the more stable day was further in the future. For instance, tomorrow may have the potential for localized disturbances some maybe there will be thunderstorms, maybe they will not form. But two days later,...

3

There is no season for earthquakes or tsunamis. They can hit at any time of the year, and at any time of the day or night. Typhoons happen in the warm season, but they will be forecast by the meteorological service, giving you time to move to a safe area. If you want to go to Japan, just go. It is better to go in the season you want to go than to try and ...

3

The probability of precipitation (POP) has to take into account the areal coverage of some region, e.g. the broadcast market of your local TV station, but perhaps the size of your local county or region. Because of this the POP is calculated as $\mathrm{POP} = C \times A$ where $C$ is the confidence it will rain somewhere within the forecast region and ...

2

Based on Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis the probability of an earthquake of magnitude $m$ occurring at the source is obtained with the Truncated Exponential Distribution can be given by $$P(M > m) = \int_{m}^{m_{max}} \frac{\beta e^{-\beta (m - m_{min})}}{\left( 1 - e^{-\beta (m_{max} - m_{min})} \right)}dm$$ where : $m$ is the magnitude; \$m_{...

2

One example that you may be able to research is the configuration of the tailings storage at the Ranger Uranium Mine in Australia's Northern Territory. The choices they had were either to dig a pit for the tailings, or build a dam for the tailings. A pit would leak a certain amount of contaminants into the surrounding waterways in the Kakadu National Park, ...

2

Suppose you don't have your house insured. When natural disaster strikes your uninsured house, you are fully responsible for the costs in getting your house repaired. If you have a mortgage on your house, you are still liable for paying that mortgage even if the house is reduced to rubble. An insurance policy transfers some of that risk to the insurer. Now ...

2

Insurance may be the best example. As the document you linked to describes in some detail, there are lots of ways of spreading risk. Traditional insurance is one common mechanism. I think their point is that with a functional insurance model, the effects of a natural disaster may be less profound and/or less protracted (see page 27 of the report). Think of ...

2

Drought is not comparable to earthquakes and hurricanes because of the difference in time scale involved. We can generally consider earthquakes and hurricanes to be discrete events at a point in time. Drought, however, has a significant and variable time component. For example, you might consider a year of severely below average rainfall to be a drought but ...

1

One can't order these hazards without being much more precise. What energy threshold do you regard as an earthquake? There is micro-sismicity over most of ther planet for most of the time. The area affected deceases as the magnitude gets larger. And what do you regard as the spatial extent? The slippage footprint, or the area suffering some event magnitude? (...

1

One possible example could be the study of ice cores in Antarctica where scientists are trying to determine changes in concentrations of gases like carbon dioxide over a period of time . Such variations serve as indicators for other Climate related factors such as Temperature. This record was a key contribution to climate science. One, it revealed how past ...

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