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8 votes

Can the forecast N+1 days ahead be more certain than the forecast N days ahead?

Typically, days with conditions which might produce local instabilities would produce a less certain forecast than a day with a stabilize pattern even if the more stable day was further in the future. ...
dlb's user avatar
  • 626
5 votes

Why are rain weather predictions (apparently) so unreliable still in the year 2021?

You are expecting too much. Weather forecasting has become quite reliable. There are exceptions. One exception is predicting what will happen more than seven days into the future. At ten days into the ...
David Hammen's user avatar
  • 23.7k
4 votes
Accepted

Will the hot Atlantic shape global/local weather and if so, how?

More important is the behaviour of the AMOC (Atlantic meridional overturning circulation) with developing climate change. This collapse leads to very different effects, e.g. that the water masses are ...
Weiss's user avatar
  • 2,043
3 votes

Weather Forecast prediction accuracy metric

The climatological forecast for 1 July 2023 for some region is computed as follows, based on the meteorological record for that region and that date: The predicted high is the average high for that ...
David Hammen's user avatar
  • 23.7k
3 votes

Why are rain weather predictions (apparently) so unreliable still in the year 2021?

Weather prediction has been (https://www.ecmwf.int/en/newsletter/166/news/forecast-performance-2020) and will be getting better, but it can only get so good. Even if we build the perfect weather model ...
geodis's user avatar
  • 51
3 votes

Is it possible to predict the maximum daily/annual tide height without calculating hourly heights?

It depends on what you are trying to achieve. If you need exact figures for the maximum tidal height each day/year at a given location, there are no simple analytical solutions due to the complex ...
Ingvar Lukas's user avatar
3 votes

What regions of the US will have *improved* climate given current predictions of climate change?

Answering my old question: I've found two sources that attempt to answer the GDP change brought about by predicted future climate change. The short answer is that places north of about Chicago should ...
mboss's user avatar
  • 81
3 votes

Which months in Japan probability lowest of natural disaster?

There is no season for earthquakes or tsunamis. They can hit at any time of the year, and at any time of the day or night. Typhoons happen in the warm season, but they will be forecast by the ...
trond hansen's user avatar
  • 1,888
2 votes
Accepted

Why can't the meteorologists predict for sure if the day would be rainy even on the beginning of the day sometimes?

The probability of precipitation (POP) has to take into account the areal coverage of some region, e.g. the broadcast market of your local TV station, but perhaps the size of your local county or ...
casey's user avatar
  • 14.2k
2 votes

What does the term spreading the risk mean, with regard to natural disasters?

Suppose you don't have your house insured. When natural disaster strikes your uninsured house, you are fully responsible for the costs in getting your house repaired. If you have a mortgage on your ...
David Hammen's user avatar
  • 23.7k
2 votes

What does the term spreading the risk mean, with regard to natural disasters?

Insurance may be the best example. As the document you linked to describes in some detail, there are lots of ways of spreading risk. Traditional insurance is one common mechanism. I think their point ...
Matt Hall's user avatar
  • 11k
2 votes

Spatial extent and predictability of various hazards.

Drought is not comparable to earthquakes and hurricanes because of the difference in time scale involved. We can generally consider earthquakes and hurricanes to be discrete events at a point in time. ...
haresfur's user avatar
  • 4,419
2 votes
Accepted

Is it possible to predict the maximum daily/annual tide height without calculating hourly heights?

You are looking for an easy solution to the local maxima of $$\sum_i a_i \sin(\theta_i+\omega_i t)$$ This means solving for solutions to $$\sum_i a_i \omega_i \cos(\theta_i+\omega_i t) = 0$$ This is a ...
David Hammen's user avatar
  • 23.7k
1 vote

Weather Forecast prediction accuracy metric

It comes down to data, time and computer modelling. Putting a confidence level on weather forecasts was not possible 30 to 40 years because of the lack of data and computer modelling capabilities. ...
Fred's user avatar
  • 24.7k
1 vote
Accepted

Is anthropogenic global warming unavoidable under modern civilisation?

It is not an invariable and unavoidable correlation between economic growth and growth of CO2 emissions. Civilisation relying heavily on fossil fuels for energy will make CO2 levels rise as it grows ...
Ken Fabian's user avatar
  • 2,120
1 vote

Spatial extent and predictability of various hazards.

One can't order these hazards without being much more precise. What energy threshold do you regard as an earthquake? There is micro-sismicity over most of ther planet for most of the time. The area ...
Gordon Stanger's user avatar

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