# Tag Info

20

Earthquake prediction really is a contentious issue, especially after the l'Aqula trials. However, let me try to elaborate how predictions might be possible in the future and what is inhibiting this development. We do have some understanding of earthquakes and rupture mechanisms. However, for prediction in a scale of hours (sufficient for evacuation), we ...

17

You ask what we should change to better predict earthquakes, and I'd think almost everything. As geophysicists we might know the what of earthquake detonation, but are relatively blind at the how. There is a strong group of scientists who feel that single event prediction is NOT a realistic goal, and may perhaps be impossible. Some good guesses as to why ...

13

Besides the theoretical limitations that @Neo talks about, there is also a great data gap in our knowledge. To predict an earthquake, we would need to know: The 3D geometry of all major, and possibly minor, fault zones The distribution of stress in the lithosphere, at least close to the fault zones but possibly more The physical characteristics of the rocks ...

11

All season forecast systems are subject to uncertainty. The uncertainty arises from an imperfect initial state, such as initial conditions, and from imperfect models, such as uncertainty due to, numerical methods, parametric models, data sampling. Forecasting systems utilize ensembles and their spread to quantify uncertainty. See the spread in forecasts ...

8

See it is relatively easy to predict where a large earthquake might occur, assuming you have been monitoring deformation for a long enough period, more or less equal to the average inter-seismic interval (decades-centuries). In principle earthquakes are simple, i.e., the fault accumulates strain and then eventually slips/ruptures. The million dollar ...

8

As of Spring 2014, the Oklahoma Geological Survey and the USGS generated a press release (www.okgeosurvey1.gov/media/press/Full_USGS-OGS_Statment_05022014.pdf) warning of increased seismic activity in Oklahoma. The survey geologists observed an increase in both the occurrence and magnitude of earthquakes in the state, likely related to the increased ...

8

The presence or absence of a large number of massive buildings has no bearing on where and when earthquakes occurs, or their magnitudes; particularly along major fault systems such as the San Andreas Fault. Earthquakes mainly occur on tectonic plate boundaries, such as the San Andreas Fault, near San Francisco, or the fault systems through Turkey, Italy, ...

7

Typically, days with conditions which might produce local instabilities would produce a less certain forecast than a day with a stabilize pattern even if the more stable day was further in the future. For instance, tomorrow may have the potential for localized disturbances some maybe there will be thunderstorms, maybe they will not form. But two days later,...

7

Although perfect forecasting of where and when the next earthquake will occur (which is how the public interprets the term 'prediction') is not physically impossible, this requires more information than we have at present. It is possible that in the future we could have enough understanding of earthquake mechanisms, and real-time knowledge of precursors, to ...

6

While we have yet to produce a scientific method that reliably predicts earthquakes well in advance of their occurrence, anecdotal evidence suggests that animals can sense earthquakes before they happen. Kirschvink (2000) suggests that the 'sixth sense' in animals is an evolutionary mechanism coined the "seismic-escape response". While it is possible that ...

4

You are expecting too much. Weather forecasting has become quite reliable. There are exceptions. One exception is predicting what will happen more than seven days into the future. At ten days into the future, forecasts remain pretty much a random guess. The 1960s discovery that weather is chaotic (Predictability: Does the flap of a butterfly's wings in ...

3

There is no season for earthquakes or tsunamis. They can hit at any time of the year, and at any time of the day or night. Typhoons happen in the warm season, but they will be forecast by the meteorological service, giving you time to move to a safe area. If you want to go to Japan, just go. It is better to go in the season you want to go than to try and ...

2

Based on Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis the probability of an earthquake of magnitude $m$ occurring at the source is obtained with the Truncated Exponential Distribution can be given by $$P(M > m) = \int_{m}^{m_{max}} \frac{\beta e^{-\beta (m - m_{min})}}{\left( 1 - e^{-\beta (m_{max} - m_{min})} \right)}dm$$ where : $m$ is the magnitude; $m_{... 2 One example that you may be able to research is the configuration of the tailings storage at the Ranger Uranium Mine in Australia's Northern Territory. The choices they had were either to dig a pit for the tailings, or build a dam for the tailings. A pit would leak a certain amount of contaminants into the surrounding waterways in the Kakadu National Park, ... 2 Suppose you don't have your house insured. When natural disaster strikes your uninsured house, you are fully responsible for the costs in getting your house repaired. If you have a mortgage on your house, you are still liable for paying that mortgage even if the house is reduced to rubble. An insurance policy transfers some of that risk to the insurer. Now ... 2 Insurance may be the best example. As the document you linked to describes in some detail, there are lots of ways of spreading risk. Traditional insurance is one common mechanism. I think their point is that with a functional insurance model, the effects of a natural disaster may be less profound and/or less protracted (see page 27 of the report). Think of ... 2 Drought is not comparable to earthquakes and hurricanes because of the difference in time scale involved. We can generally consider earthquakes and hurricanes to be discrete events at a point in time. Drought, however, has a significant and variable time component. For example, you might consider a year of severely below average rainfall to be a drought but ... 2 Weather prediction has been (https://www.ecmwf.int/en/newsletter/166/news/forecast-performance-2020) and will be getting better, but it can only get so good. Even if we build the perfect weather model and feed it with the perfect initial and boundary conditions (practically impossible at the moment), the forecasts will still be overshadowed by chaos and/or ... 2 It depends on what you are trying to achieve. If you need exact figures for the maximum tidal height each day/year at a given location, there are no simple analytical solutions due to the complex nature of tides. If you are interested in ballpark figures (which are good enough for most recreational, but also some engineering applications), the maximum annual ... 2 The probability of precipitation (POP) has to take into account the areal coverage of some region, e.g. the broadcast market of your local TV station, but perhaps the size of your local county or region. Because of this the POP is calculated as$\mathrm{POP} = C \times A$where$C\$ is the confidence it will rain somewhere within the forecast region and ...

1

You are looking for an easy solution to the local maxima of $$\sum_i a_i \sin(\theta_i+\omega_i t)$$ This means solving for solutions to $$\sum_i a_i \omega_i \cos(\theta_i+\omega_i t) = 0$$ This is a transcendental equation with multiple terms with different frequencies. While there are many ways to find such maxima that vary in computational complexity and ...

1

One can't order these hazards without being much more precise. What energy threshold do you regard as an earthquake? There is micro-sismicity over most of ther planet for most of the time. The area affected deceases as the magnitude gets larger. And what do you regard as the spatial extent? The slippage footprint, or the area suffering some event magnitude? (...

1

One possible example could be the study of ice cores in Antarctica where scientists are trying to determine changes in concentrations of gases like carbon dioxide over a period of time . Such variations serve as indicators for other Climate related factors such as Temperature. This record was a key contribution to climate science. One, it revealed how past ...

Only top voted, non community-wiki answers of a minimum length are eligible