20 votes

Is earthquake prediction possible?

Earthquake prediction really is a contentious issue, especially after the l'Aqula trials. However, let me try to elaborate how predictions might be possible in the future and what is inhibiting this ...
user avatar
17 votes
Accepted

Is earthquake prediction possible?

You ask what we should change to better predict earthquakes, and I'd think almost everything. As geophysicists we might know the what of earthquake detonation, but are relatively blind at the how. ...
user avatar
  • 6,356
13 votes

Is earthquake prediction possible?

Besides the theoretical limitations that @Neo talks about, there is also a great data gap in our knowledge. To predict an earthquake, we would need to know: The 3D geometry of all major, and possibly ...
user avatar
  • 843
12 votes
Accepted

What is the predictability of El Niño/La Niña?

All season forecast systems are subject to uncertainty. The uncertainty arises from an imperfect initial state, such as initial conditions, and from imperfect models, such as uncertainty due to, ...
user avatar
8 votes

Can the forecast N+1 days ahead be more certain than the forecast N days ahead?

Typically, days with conditions which might produce local instabilities would produce a less certain forecast than a day with a stabilize pattern even if the more stable day was further in the future. ...
user avatar
  • 626
8 votes

About Earthquakes and their properties

The presence or absence of a large number of massive buildings has no bearing on where and when earthquakes occurs, or their magnitudes; particularly along major fault systems such as the San Andreas ...
user avatar
  • 20.3k
8 votes

Is earthquake prediction possible?

See it is relatively easy to predict where a large earthquake might occur, assuming you have been monitoring deformation for a long enough period, more or less equal to the average inter-seismic ...
user avatar
  • 2,361
8 votes

Is earthquake prediction possible?

As of Spring 2014, the Oklahoma Geological Survey and the USGS generated a press release (www.okgeosurvey1.gov/media/press/Full_USGS-OGS_Statment_05022014.pdf) warning of increased seismic activity in ...
user avatar
  • 1,015
7 votes

Is earthquake prediction possible?

Although perfect forecasting of where and when the next earthquake will occur (which is how the public interprets the term 'prediction') is not physically impossible, this requires more information ...
user avatar
  • 3,780
6 votes

Is earthquake prediction possible?

While we have yet to produce a scientific method that reliably predicts earthquakes well in advance of their occurrence, anecdotal evidence suggests that animals can sense earthquakes before they ...
user avatar
  • 259
5 votes

Why are rain weather predictions (apparently) so unreliable still in the year 2021?

You are expecting too much. Weather forecasting has become quite reliable. There are exceptions. One exception is predicting what will happen more than seven days into the future. At ten days into the ...
user avatar
3 votes

Why are rain weather predictions (apparently) so unreliable still in the year 2021?

Weather prediction has been (https://www.ecmwf.int/en/newsletter/166/news/forecast-performance-2020) and will be getting better, but it can only get so good. Even if we build the perfect weather model ...
user avatar
  • 41
3 votes

Is it possible to predict the maximum daily/annual tide height without calculating hourly heights?

It depends on what you are trying to achieve. If you need exact figures for the maximum tidal height each day/year at a given location, there are no simple analytical solutions due to the complex ...
user avatar
3 votes

What regions of the US will have *improved* climate given current predictions of climate change?

Answering my old question: I've found two sources that attempt to answer the GDP change brought about by predicted future climate change. The short answer is that places north of about Chicago should ...
user avatar
  • 81
3 votes

Which months in Japan probability lowest of natural disaster?

There is no season for earthquakes or tsunamis. They can hit at any time of the year, and at any time of the day or night. Typhoons happen in the warm season, but they will be forecast by the ...
user avatar
  • 1,820
2 votes

Can a 99.9% probability of an M≥ 5 earthquake within a 3-year period be verified?

Based on Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis the probability of an earthquake of magnitude $m$ occurring at the source is obtained with the Truncated Exponential Distribution can be given by $$P(M ...
user avatar
  • 1,467
2 votes

Hazard event predictions. Examples of predictions causing more harm than good

One example that you may be able to research is the configuration of the tailings storage at the Ranger Uranium Mine in Australia's Northern Territory. The choices they had were either to dig a pit ...
user avatar
  • 508
2 votes

What does the term spreading the risk mean, with regard to natural disasters?

Suppose you don't have your house insured. When natural disaster strikes your uninsured house, you are fully responsible for the costs in getting your house repaired. If you have a mortgage on your ...
user avatar
2 votes

What does the term spreading the risk mean, with regard to natural disasters?

Insurance may be the best example. As the document you linked to describes in some detail, there are lots of ways of spreading risk. Traditional insurance is one common mechanism. I think their point ...
user avatar
  • 10.8k
2 votes

Spatial extent and predictability of various hazards.

Drought is not comparable to earthquakes and hurricanes because of the difference in time scale involved. We can generally consider earthquakes and hurricanes to be discrete events at a point in time. ...
user avatar
  • 4,319
2 votes
Accepted

Why can't the meteorologists predict for sure if the day would be rainy even on the beginning of the day sometimes?

The probability of precipitation (POP) has to take into account the areal coverage of some region, e.g. the broadcast market of your local TV station, but perhaps the size of your local county or ...
user avatar
  • 13.9k
2 votes
Accepted

Is it possible to predict the maximum daily/annual tide height without calculating hourly heights?

You are looking for an easy solution to the local maxima of $$\sum_i a_i \sin(\theta_i+\omega_i t)$$ This means solving for solutions to $$\sum_i a_i \omega_i \cos(\theta_i+\omega_i t) = 0$$ This is a ...
user avatar
1 vote
Accepted

Is anthropogenic global warming unavoidable under modern civilisation?

It is not an invariable and unavoidable correlation between economic growth and growth of CO2 emissions. Civilisation relying heavily on fossil fuels for energy will make CO2 levels rise as it grows ...
user avatar
  • 1,178
1 vote

Spatial extent and predictability of various hazards.

One can't order these hazards without being much more precise. What energy threshold do you regard as an earthquake? There is micro-sismicity over most of ther planet for most of the time. The area ...
user avatar
1 vote

Are 'Return Periods' being recalculated? If so, how?

One possible example could be the study of ice cores in Antarctica where scientists are trying to determine changes in concentrations of gases like carbon dioxide over a period of time . Such ...
user avatar
  • 1,467

Only top scored, non community-wiki answers of a minimum length are eligible