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When I visit that link, the first option at the top ("Data Product") defaults to inst3_3d_asm_Np, which is atmospheric variables in pressure levels. I suspect you need to change that dropdown option to inst1_2d_asm_Nx, which is surface and near-surface variables. The list is shows me for that option is, DISPH = zero plane displacement height PS = surface ...


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It is likely that the forecast is made using an ensemble of runs from a weather model. As weather is chaotic (deterministic, but heavily dependent on initial conditions), each run will show a different pattern of precipitation, and the probability is likely to be simply the proportion of model runs that exhibited precipitation in that location during that ...


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