Timeline for Are the oceans rising or the continents going down? How can we know?
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15 events
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| Feb 21, 2021 at 16:26 | comment | added | John | @Alf to be clear only a tiny minority of papers at the time predicted cooling, MOST of the papers published at the same time predicted warming, which was then conformed by observational data. there has never been a time where the majority of science predicted cooling. Also I don't think you know what relative means. journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/bams/89/9/2008bams2370_1.xml | |
| Apr 13, 2017 at 12:50 | history | edited | CommunityBot |
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| Jul 7, 2015 at 22:02 | comment | added | Alf | @Jareth: without entering into details, the temperature of oceans has only a marginal rising since more than a decade (and NOAA is rejecting satellite data on the ground that they have "a cold bias" (??)). To overcome this, papers were published trying to explain the rising of oceans by an hypothetical temperature vertical profile. So, it is not easy to explain a rising of oceans by temperature. Furthermore, once all we have is a relative measure of oceans level, to take it as absolute is a methodological mistake - a violation of 1º rule of Descartes method. | |
| Jul 6, 2015 at 14:39 | comment | added | Jareth Holt | @Alf: Theories were made predicting a cooling of the earth due to sulfate particles and a minimum in solar output. Those predictions didn't come true; what we predict has no influence over what actually happens. And yes, sea level rise is a multiple-decade process (I hesitate to say that it's century-scale only). But human emissions of CO2 started accelerating more well over a century ago. That's still consistent with CO2 driving temperature and temperature driving sea level rise through thermal expansion, even with decades of lag between forcing and response. | |
| Jul 6, 2015 at 13:25 | comment | added | Alf | @Jareth Holt, the increase of relative sea level is century long, it was already increasing when theories were made predicting a cooling of Earth caused by carbon particles in the atmosphere. | |
| Jul 4, 2015 at 20:40 | comment | added | Jareth Holt | I don't get why you think a long-term increase rules out a climatic cause. "Correlations" with temperature records aren't really useful here without filtering; day-to-day temperature fluctuations don't drive day-to-day sea surface fluctuations, but year-to-year fluctuations certainly do. If both the long-term (decadal) temperature is trending up and the sea level is trending up, then they're well correlated. Can you explain why you think this is ruled out? | |
| May 19, 2015 at 19:46 | comment | added | Alf | @mankoff, its not true, antarctic land ice s not drastically deceasing at all - in my previous comment I mentioned an article that estimates its contribution to he increase of sea level in 6%, so its almost irrelevant. But there is more: the calculations that conclude that antarctic ice is decreasing are the result of a speculative calculation that considers that land is going up in the poles; that, however, does not seem to be confirmed by satellite measurements. | |
| May 18, 2015 at 18:36 | comment | added | mankoff | @Alf Antarctic sea ice is increasing. Like the arctic, this has minimal impact on sea level. Antarctic land ice is drastically decreasing and adding to sea level. | |
| May 18, 2015 at 12:25 | comment | added | Alf | @Casey, in King, 2012 the value is 0.19+-0.05 mm/yr; you can see a discussion of the two papers here. | |
| May 17, 2015 at 22:18 | comment | added | Alf | Casey, discussing climatic data is not the point here because although temperature can influence oceans level, the long trend displayed by the record rules out this cause. So, if it is not climate, what is? That is the problem. I have very good reasons for not wanting to discuss climate but I can't expose them. Anyhow, I draw your attention for the criterion 1 for selecting climate scenarios link | |
| May 17, 2015 at 19:46 | comment | added | Pont | @Alf What's your source for increasing Antarctic land ice? Shepherd et al. (2012) report 20-year declines in West Antarctic, Antarctic Peninsula, and Greenland ice sheets, equivalent to 0.59 ± 0.20 mm/yr sea level. Possible slight increase in East Antarctic, but it's more than cancelled out by declines in the western and peninsular ice sheets -- and the Greenland decline dwarfs them all. | |
| May 17, 2015 at 19:10 | comment | added | Alf | casey, arctic ice is irrelevant, it is already in the sea, does not change sea level; only land ice is relevant - antarctic and greenland ice. Regarding oceans, I am talking of SST. Anyhow, the record of sea level does not correlates with temperature records, one shall look for long duration phenomenon to explain it. Furthermore, the level increase is relevant, cannot be explained by minor phenomena. There is a phenomenon that can be related with this but I will have to put another question to mention it. | |
| May 17, 2015 at 16:53 | comment | added | casey | @alf regarding ice, arctic losses are greater than antarctic gains and there is a global net loss of ice. For satellite data are you looking at oceanic heat content or just SST? | |
| May 17, 2015 at 12:16 | comment | added | Alf | Kinkunks, thanks for the answer but note the following: the record of sea level comes from 1870 and shows a steady increasing of the relative level, which is incompatible with a climatic cause; the satellites measurements you refer are, as far as I understand, relative to land stations, so they do not contribute to answer the question; all the causes presented to explain an absolute rise of the oceans but sediments are temporary, thus do not explain the record; also ice, namely Antartic ice, is increasing, and sea temperature is not increasing significantly in satelite measurements | |
| May 16, 2015 at 1:29 | history | answered | Matt Hall | CC BY-SA 3.0 |