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Looking at the index files in https://ftp.ncep.noaa.gov/data/nccf/com/gfs/prod/, there's no probability of precipitation (POP) data provided. (There is a probability of frozen precipitation.)

Is there a way to derive a POP (using the NWS 0.01 inch standard, or some other standard) from the other values provided like the precipitation rate (PRATE) value?

The model output statistics in the GFS data provides POP values for a number of domestic airports, but I'm interested in worldwide, hourly POP.

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  • $\begingroup$ Here is how I would do it. Get WRF installed. Using GFS as initial and boundary conditions generate a 10 member ensemble (or 20) by varying the microphysics schemes. Once you have the n-member ensemble you can generate a POP from that $\endgroup$ – gansub Apr 8 at 1:36
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    $\begingroup$ You can also generate a POP from GEFS precip forecasts - tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2021040800/… $\endgroup$ – gansub Apr 8 at 3:53

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