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We recently had an earthquake in Bali (August 5th 2018), then in Palu, Indonesia (October 1st 2018). enter image description here

Considering the distance and time between Bali and Palu, is it more likely that it will be near Philipines or it is as likely anywhere else?

How likely is that the next big earthquake (and tsunami) will hit the Philippines again?

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How likely is that the next big earthquake (and tsunami) will hit the Philippines again?

The likelihood is 100%, but we don't know when. It could be tomorrow, it could be in a year, or it could be in 100 years. Make sure you are prepared for such an event.

The Philippines are situated above a subduction zone (the Philippine trench), so an earthquake is inevitable. However, it is impossible to predict exactly when and where it will happen.

As for tsunamis, these propagate from earthquake epicentres, so the Philippines are susceptible to tsunamis generated elsewhere in the area.

You are drawing a line between the Bali and Palu events, and suggesting that the next one will be along that line. This is not how it works. The earthquake could be on the line (by chance), or it could not. There is no way of predicting.

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  • $\begingroup$ There is the notion of earthquake storms out there, so if the two earthquakes had been on the same fault (they're not), you might have expected another one further down the fault. $\endgroup$
    – Spencer
    Commented Oct 13, 2018 at 13:05

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