I'm calculating warming trends in specific places and periods of time, that are related to the time a migratory bird spends in a stopover. But using different methods I got different results and I'm trying to figure out which is the most accurate. I know it will depend on location, so my sites are Southeast Canada and the Arctic. How much warming is possible in 40 years for example in a period covering only one month in spring, like May? What would be a good value to compare my results? spring temperature warming trend?
There's a lot of fluctuation in temperatures, so when averaging them I get no changes, including in the Arctic, which cannot be true. I looked at trends of the maximum temperatures and they are increasing, also investigated the anomalies, but I would like to have an advice.